California's jet fuel supply has plummeted to its lowest level since 2023, as ongoing turmoil in the Middle East continues to strain the global oil market. According to the California Energy Commission (CEC), the state's jet fuel stock stood at just over 2.6 million barrels as of 17 April, compared to 3.2 million barrels two years earlier.
Dependence on Foreign Oil
The CEC reports that California sourced 61.1% of its oil supply from foreign countries in 2025, primarily from Asian refiners. This marks a significant shift from the early 1990s, when nearly half of the state's oil came from domestic refineries. Energy researchers attribute this change to stricter air quality regulations that have reduced local refining capacity.
Impact of Middle East Conflict
The disruption in supply has been exacerbated by the US and Israel's war with Iran. Asia imported over 14 million barrels per day of crude Middle Eastern oil in 2025, but traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway for oil tankers—has dropped sharply. Since the conflict began, jet fuel prices have surged dramatically.
In the first two months of 2026, jet fuel prices in major US cities like Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York hovered around $2.30 per gallon, according to Argus Media. By 24 April, the average price had risen to $4.19 per gallon. At Los Angeles International Airport, prices recently approached $15 per gallon, as reported by the Los Angeles Times.
“Jet fuel supply is tight globally,” said Sandy Louey, a CEC spokesperson. “California prices reflect that pressure, though the US is better positioned due to domestic refining infrastructure and crude supply that Europe lacks.” Louey added that the CEC is closely monitoring the situation and coordinating with industry and state agencies to assess risks and options.
Consumer Impact
The rising fuel costs are already affecting consumers. Several airlines, including Delta, Southwest, and JetBlue, have increased baggage fees or introduced fuel surcharges. Travel expert Clint Henderson of The Points Guy noted that while planes will still be able to refuel, travelers should expect more flight cancellations, particularly on less profitable short-haul routes.
“Some of the shorter-haul flights that are not super profitable will likely be cut first,” Henderson said. “We haven’t seen any letup in demand from passengers. So you’ve got the same amount of people wanting to travel, but you’ve got fewer seats available. That’s driving prices higher, and prices are already higher.”
As the situation evolves, industry analysts warn that further disruptions could snarl travel plans for millions of passengers, especially during peak seasons. The combination of reduced supply and sustained demand is likely to keep upward pressure on airfares and fuel costs in the near term.
