A stark warning has been issued by global leaders ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, with economic warfare identified as the single greatest threat to world stability over the next two years.
Geoeconomic Confrontation Tops the Risk List
The forum's annual survey, which polled 1,300 key figures from business, government, and civil society between August and September 2025, found that 18 per cent of respondents ranked "geoeconomic confrontation" as the most pressing danger. This category, encompassing trade wars and economic disputes between major powers, surged eight places in the rankings compared to the previous year, overtaking state-based armed conflict, climate change, and the spread of disinformation.
The report underscores a profound shift in concerns, with economic downturn and inflation also climbing the risk ladder. Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director of the World Economic Forum, highlighted the crumbling foundations of international order. "Rules and institutions that have long underpinned stability are increasingly deadlocked or ineffective in managing this turbulence," Zahidi stated, pointing to a crisis of credibility for the laws governing diplomatic relations.
A Turbulent Geopolitical Backdrop
The publication of the report follows a chaotic start to 2026, which has heightened anxieties about global security and resource competition. Key events colouring the current landscape include:
- The capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro by forces aligned with President Trump, partly motivated by control over the world's largest oil reserves.
- Threats to Greenland's sovereignty amid disputes over its natural resources.
- Predictions of a potential new energy shock triggered by conflict in Iran, following the killing of thousands of protesters.
The survey responses reflect deep-seated worries about the next moves from leaders like Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Donald Trump, especially after a major trade war erupted in April 2025 and the US forged closer ties with Russia to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
Long-Term Fears: Climate and AI Dominate the Decade
While economic conflict is the immediate priority, the decade-long outlook reveals different perils. Over a ten-year horizon, extreme weather events are considered the biggest threat, followed by biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth's systems. Adverse outcomes from artificial intelligence and the proliferation of misinformation and disinformation also feature as serious long-term concerns for global leaders.
The survey also paints a pessimistic picture for international cooperation. When asked about the state of global collaboration on risks in a decade, 68 per cent of respondents foresaw middle and great powers contesting and enforcing regional rules, rather than adhering to a unified global order. A mere 6 per cent predicted a reinvigoration of the US-led, rules-based international system.
As President Trump, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and EU leaders prepare to converge on Davos next week, talks on Ukraine's future are anticipated. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will accompany Starmer, aiming to secure further investment for the UK at the high-profile gathering in the Swiss Alps, with a scheduled meeting with JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon on the agenda.
