The United Kingdom is projected to tumble down the global league table for GDP per capita by the end of this decade, according to a major new economic forecast. The nation's "subpar" growth trajectory is expected to see it overtaken by several other economies.
A Steady Decline in Prosperity Rankings
Analysis by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) predicts the UK will slip from its current position of 19th in the world next year to 21st. The slide is forecast to continue, with the country landing in 22nd place by 2030.
Over this period, the UK is set to be surpassed by Hong Kong, Finland, and the United Arab Emirates. In monetary terms, UK GDP per capita is still expected to rise, increasing by 3.7% to $58,775 next year and by a further 8.4% in the four years leading to 2030.
Labour's Growth Challenge and Global Slowdown
The report offered a pointed assessment of the Labour government's first full year in office following the 2024 election. "Having been elected on a platform to boost growth, only very limited success has been achieved," Cebr stated.
It estimates the UK economy grew by just 1.4% in 2025 and is set to continue at an average annual rate of around 1.5%. While this is among the fastest in the G7 and the UK's best performance since 2022, it remains well below historical trends. The think tank concluded that policy announcements in the Autumn 2025 Budget "did little to support the near-term growth outlook."
Globally, Cebr noted the economy slowed for a fourth consecutive year to 2.6% growth in 2025, a sluggish pace expected to persist through the 2020s. "It has been some time since the global economy experienced a 'normal' year," the report said, citing a significant shake-up of global trade.
Contrasting Fortunes: Overall Economy vs. Living Standards
In a contrasting finding, the report states the UK is on track to become the world's fifth-largest economy and hold that position until at least 2040. This rise is attributed less to stellar UK performance and more to the "poor performance of other economies of a similar size."
Japan, grappling with an ageing population and low birth rate, is expected to fall behind the UK. Meanwhile, India will climb from fifth to third place, and the United States is projected to retain its top spot, even as China closes the gap.
Cebr warned that the global outlook remains fragile, with many impacts of recent trade policy shifts yet to fully materialise. "Significant risks to the outlook remain, across fiscal policy, international relations, and inflation dynamics," the report concluded, predicting a further period of slower growth in 2026.
