Avalanche fatalities have increased dramatically in the Alps this season, prompting widespread concern among skiers, guides, and safety experts. As of late March, the death toll since October 1 stands at 146, more than double the number recorded in some recent years. While not unprecedented, this figure is clearly above average and has raised questions about what is driving the deadly trend.
The Science Behind the Surge
The primary culprit is an unusually complex snowpack. The season began with early snowfall in November, followed by a prolonged drought with extremely cold temperatures and abundant sunshine. These conditions created what avalanche researchers call persistent weak layers: snow crystals that transform into large, fragile grains with poor bonding. When heavy snowfall finally arrived in January, it formed a dense slab on top of this fragile layer, creating a precarious house of cards that could collapse with minimal triggers.
Johan Gaume, a former professional snowboarder and now a professor of alpine mass movements at ETH Zurich and SLF Davos, explains that these weak layers are notoriously difficult to manage. An avalanche can be triggered by a skier's sharp turn, a fall, or even a localized thin spot in the snowpack. The instability is not visible on the surface, but avalanche bulletins typically provide detailed warnings. Despite this, many accidents occur when blue skies lure skiers into the backcountry after a storm.
Human Factors and Changing Behavior
Gaume emphasizes that human behavior plays a critical role. After long dry spells, skiers often feel frustrated and eager to enjoy fresh powder, leading them to take risks. In February, dozens of skiers in Verbier, Switzerland, ignored high avalanche risk warnings and descended the same steep slope together, triggering an avalanche that buried several people. Fortunately, all were rescued.
While such behavior is not new, the scale may be increasing. More people are venturing into the mountains, aided by better equipment and accessibility. Tourism has also boosted exposure, raising the overall risk.
Climate Change and Future Risks
The pattern observed this season—long, dry, cold spells followed by intense snowfall—aligns with climate change projections. Increased variability and extremes could lead to more seasons with persistent weak layers, making avalanche conditions more dangerous and complex. Gaume notes that education remains key to reducing fatalities. Efforts in Europe have improved avalanche awareness through courses, outreach, and role models promoting conservative decision-making on social media. However, a gap in public understanding persists.
Recommendations for Safe Backcountry Travel
Gaume advises skiers to carry avalanche safety gear and practice using it regularly. Terrain choice is critical, especially with weak layers present. Skiers should avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees and areas where avalanches from above could reach them. Warning signs include recent avalanches, collapsing snowpacks, and the distinctive whumpf sound indicating a failing weak layer. If you hear a whumpf, it is time to go home.
Effectively managing avalanche risk requires patience and sometimes sacrificing the best lines. As Gaume puts it, the goal is not to win the day but to keep playing the game.
