This Christmas, a festive favourite is delivering a bitter aftertaste. The iconic Terry's Chocolate Orange has not only doubled in price but has also shrunk in size, joining a host of other seasonal treats becoming less affordable. It's a stark example of 'shrinkflation' hitting the confectionery aisle, driven by a perfect storm of global factors far beyond simple greed.
The Shrinking Festive Feast
Your eyes aren't deceiving you. The Chocolate Orange on shelves this year is 12 grams lighter than its 2022 counterpart, an 8% reduction. This follows a previous 10% cut back in 2016. Meanwhile, its price has skyrocketed. Data from Assosia shows the full price across major supermarkets has jumped from £1.24 in December 2022 to approximately £2.25 today—an 81% increase. When you account for the lost weight, consumers are effectively paying 96% more.
This trend isn't isolated. From Toblerone's changing shape to shrinking boxes of Quality Street, beloved Christmas indulgences are getting smaller. Some products have even been downgraded to "chocolate flavour" as manufacturers use more palm and shea oils to offset soaring cocoa costs.
The Cocoa Catastrophe: Climate and Cost
At the heart of the price surge is a crisis in the cocoa supply chain. Over 60% of the world's cocoa comes from West Africa, where crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana were devastated in 2023. Extreme rainfall triggered black pod disease, followed by severe drought and a resurgence of the swollen shoot virus. Chris Jaccarini, an analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, explains that infected trees must be ripped out and replaced, a process that takes years.
This catastrophic drop in supply, coupled with growing demand from markets like India and China, sent cocoa prices to a record high of $12,000 a tonne late last year—triple the 2023 price. Julia Buech, senior analyst at Rabobank, notes that chocolate bar prices across Western Europe have risen over 50% since 2021, a "dramatic shift for a category built on affordable indulgence."
Beyond Cocoa: A Cascade of Rising Costs
The problem extends far beyond a single ingredient. Sugar prices are 60% higher than in January 2022, with UK sugar beet yields hit by pests thriving in warmer winters. Manufacturing giants like Mondelez International, owner of Cadbury and Toblerone, cite "significantly higher input costs" across their entire supply chain, including energy, transport, and wages.
The Food & Drink Federation adds that UK manufacturers face a new packaging tax, higher national insurance contributions, and increased minimum wages. Their non-labour costs rose 39% between January 2020 and September 2025.
Who Bears the Brunt?
While large corporations have some buffer due to scale, the pinch is acutely felt by smaller producers and, ultimately, farmers. Jason Archie-Acheampong of the Fairtrade Foundation highlights that price volatility leaves most farmers as "price takers," unable to invest in resilience measures like shade trees to protect crops from extreme heat. Fairtrade schemes aim to provide a safety net, but the system remains fragile.
In the UK, a recent ban on multibuy promotions for unhealthy foods has also removed a traditional avenue for discounts, though some bargains, like a 50p Chocolate Orange Advent calendar at B&M, hint at prices of Christmases past. For now, the era of cheap, plentiful festive chocolate appears to be melting away, a direct consequence of global economic and environmental pressures landing on our supermarket shelves.
