James Street in Eastwood, New York, captured on a quiet weekend morning in 2021. Photograph: Debra Millet/Alamy
US Small Businesses Show Resilience and Growing Optimism
Contrary to prevailing economic narratives, small businesses across the United States are demonstrating remarkable resilience and positive momentum. Multiple authoritative business indexes reveal an encouraging uptick in owner optimism, alongside measurable easing of cost pressures and reduced uncertainty. The evidence suggests that, despite facing significant challenges, America's entrepreneurial backbone is performing robustly across numerous sectors.
Historical Data Points to Sustained Improvement
The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), which has published monthly economic trend reports for over five decades, recorded a second consecutive monthly increase in small-business optimism as 2025 concluded. This survey, consistently using the same methodology since 1973, provides one of the most reliable longitudinal views of the small business landscape. Business owners reported moderating cost pressures, easing employment challenges for most sectors, and increased capital investment activity.
The December data delivered particularly welcome news regarding uncertainty levels, noted the study's economists, highlighting a significant improvement in what had been a major pain point throughout 2025.
Multiple Indexes Confirm Positive Trends
Fiserv's Small Business Index, which aggregates consumer spending data from approximately two million US small firms through point-of-sale transactions, revealed monthly sales increases in December compared to the previous month. December's sales gains demonstrate the resilience of small businesses during a competitive holiday season, observed Prasanna Dhore, Chief Data Officer at Fiserv. Consumers focused on essentials while making selective discretionary purchases, driven by ongoing cost pressures. These patterns resulted in modest monthly sales growth, highlighting how small businesses continue to adapt within a challenging economic climate.
Comerica Bank's Small Business Pulse Index, surveying over one thousand small-business owners nationwide, found that 80% of respondents in mid-November expressed somewhat or very confident about their business outlook for the coming twelve months. Notably, 79% anticipated revenue growth in 2026, projecting an average increase of 7.9%. Technology and construction firms led this optimism, while sole proprietors and retail businesses exhibited more caution. The survey also revealed that 57% of businesses planned capital expenditures, with more than half reporting positive effects from recent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Employment and Revenue Show Widespread Gains
Intuit's Small Business Index, derived from transactions across more than 420,000 small businesses using QuickBooks software, reported modest employment increases in January. The data showed employment growth in eight of twelve industry sectors, across all eight US regions, and hiring increases in thirteen of twenty tracked states. Furthermore, reported revenue increased in all US regions compared to November figures.
Acknowledging Persistent Challenges
This positive outlook doesn't imply universal prosperity across America's 33 million small businesses. The NFIB reports that agricultural businesses continue struggling with tariffs and dramatically higher costs, while some retailers face slower sales and increased competition from large chain stores. Many transportation firms grapple with heightened regulations, and certain service businesses find it challenging to convince consumers to spend amid persistent price pressures.
Comerica's research indicates that inflation, tariffs, and regulations remain significant concerns for small businesses, with most expecting tariff impacts to persist or potentially worsen in 2026. Among ongoing operational challenges, talent acquisition continues as a persistent issue for many firms, while rising healthcare costs create substantial pressures for both employers and employees.
The Entrepreneurial Spirit Prevails
Running a successful business has never been easy—if it were, more people would undertake the venture and sustain their operations beyond the initial challenging years. However, the collective data suggests that US small businesses navigated 2025 relatively successfully, with a substantial majority expressing optimism about the coming year. This positive outlook may reflect the characteristic glass-half-full attitude of American entrepreneurs, whose resilience continues to drive the nation's economic engine forward despite ongoing challenges.
