Senior energy executives and market analysts are issuing stark warnings about the investment climate in Venezuela, labelling the country "uninvestable" as President Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions create waves of uncertainty in global markets.
Energy Giants Voice Caution Amid Political Turmoil
The cautionary tone was set by ExxonMobil chief executive Darren Woods, who publicly distanced his company from the US President's stated aims to rapidly extract oil from the South American nation. Speaking in a televised meeting that included energy officials and military personnel, Woods pointed to the crippling legacy of years under Nicolas Maduro's communist rule, which has left the country's vast oil reserves – the largest in the world – hampered by a critical lack of infrastructure.
"If we look at the legal and commercial constructs, frameworks in place today in Venezuela, today it’s uninvestable," Woods stated bluntly. He emphasised that significant changes to commercial frameworks, the legal system, and hydrocarbon laws were essential, alongside durable investment protections, before major oil companies could engage. His comments came just a week after the shock arrest of former leader Maduro in a daring operation.
Market Jitters Over Trump's Interventionist Stance
The situation in Venezuela is acting as a focal point for broader market anxiety regarding the Trump administration's foreign policy direction. Analysts from private bank Berenberg, Richard Hatch and Jasper Mainwaring, predict another rally in commodity prices as Trump threatens further action not only in Venezuela but also in Mexico, Colombia, Cuba, and Greenland.
They warned, "If there are further military actions by the US against any of the above countries or increased military action in the east, for example China and Taiwan, we believe that gold and silver will continue to see upward pressure in prices."
Carsten Brzeski, ING's global head of macroeconomics, noted that a "disconnect between geopolitics and the real economy" has persisted, with investors becoming numb to a stream of unpredictable statements from the US president in 2025. However, he expressed an "eerie feeling" that this disconnect may not last forever, and markets could soon be forced to react more sharply.
Broader Fears for Free Markets and Corporate Influence
Concerns extend beyond specific geopolitical flashpoints. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, highlighted an "odd turn" for the United States, long considered the champion of free capital markets. She pointed to the US government taking stakes in key sectors like rare-earth miners and Intel, claiming a cut of Nvidia's China revenues, and signalling limits on capital returns for defence firms.
"Investors may grow increasingly sceptical of rising government influence in corporate decision-making, especially where political goals diverge from shareholder value," Ozkardeskaya said. "One wonders whether this accelerates rotation out of US assets."
Despite the pervasive caution, some voices within the industry see potential. Mark Nelson, vice chairman of Chevron – the sole American firm operating in Venezuela under a special licence – suggested he saw a "path forward" to increase production. Fracking executive Harold Hamm similarly acknowledged the country's "challenges" but believed businesses could "handle" them.
For now, however, with Venezuela under the continued control of its socialist government, albeit with Maduro's vice-president Delcy Rodriguez now at the helm under apparent US supervision, most analysts and economists are holding back from a full assessment of the year ahead, awaiting clearer signs of stability and reform.
