Iran Conflict Severely Disrupts Fertilizer Supply Chains, Putting African Food Security at Risk
Experts warn that African countries are facing heightened vulnerability as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East severely disrupts critical supply chains, particularly for agricultural fertilizers. Many African nations depend heavily on fertilizer imports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime corridor now experiencing significant trade interruptions due to regional hostilities.
Heavy Reliance on Gulf Fertilizer Imports
Food production across numerous African economies relies extensively on fertilizer imported from the Gulf region via the Strait of Hormuz. According to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad), approximately 54% of Sudan's fertilizer arrives through this maritime route. The figures are similarly concerning for Somalia at 30% and Kenya at 26%, highlighting a dangerous dependency.
About one-third of all seaborne fertilizer trade globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf region produces vast quantities of fertilizer due to its abundant, inexpensive fossil gas reserves, which are crucial for manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea. Additionally, the area generates significant sulphur byproducts used in phosphate fertilizer production.
Soaring Prices and Economic Vulnerability
Since the conflict escalated last month, fertilizer prices have skyrocketed. Unctad cautions that this surge will likely increase food costs and intensify living expenses, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable populations. Rising oil and gas prices compound these pressures, creating a perfect storm for African economies.
Unctad notes that African economies are exceptionally vulnerable to external shocks due to several structural weaknesses. These include heavy reliance on foreign markets, volatile commodity exports, substantial debt burdens, and inadequate infrastructure. Many African governments are already grappling with budgetary constraints, making them particularly susceptible to supply chain disruptions.
"Any disruptions, any shocks really affect all of us," stated Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa. XN Iraki, a business and economics professor at the University of Nairobi, emphasized that higher oil prices would be felt "acutely" across the continent, where most people work in the informal sector with "uncertain income."
Government Responses and Mitigation Efforts
African governments are implementing various measures to brace for potential economic shocks. Kenya's Energy Minister, Opiyo Wandayi, recently confirmed that the country has scheduled petroleum product imports through the end of April, with the ministry committed to ensuring uninterrupted supply.
In Tanzania, President Samia Suluhu Hassan has directed the energy ministry to strengthen strategic fuel reserves. Ethiopia has introduced a special fuel subsidy to cushion citizens from surging global oil prices, while Zambia has issued warnings to fuel retailers against hoarding products.
Rama Yade, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Africa Center, noted on social media that rising oil prices pose "serious economic challenges" for many African governments. She warned that authorities might be forced to increase subsidies or pass costs to consumers, potentially triggering "social and political pressure."
Broader Supply Chain Impacts
The conflict is also disrupting African exports to the Middle East via air and sea routes. Last week, Kenya's Agriculture Minister, Mutahi Kagwe, reported that hostilities have interrupted meat, tea, and other food product exports to the region.
While some African nations have subsidy mechanisms to mitigate high oil prices, Naidoo cautioned that these may prove insufficient for long-term protection. The continent faced similar supply chain disruptions in 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, underscoring persistent vulnerabilities.
Conversely, rising crude prices could benefit African oil exporters like Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola as global markets seek alternative sources. However, this potential upside does little to offset the broader threats to food security and economic stability across the continent.
