The 2026 awards season kicks into high gear this Sunday with the Golden Globes ceremony, marking the official start of the major film prize calendar. This pivotal event often sets the tone for the months ahead, revealing which performances and films are poised to dominate – or which dark horse contenders might spectacularly upend the favourites.
A Year of Cinematic Riches Sets the Stage
The past twelve months have delivered an exceptional array of cinematic offerings, creating fiercely competitive categories. From major blockbusters like Sinners and One Battle After Another to poignant dramas such as Hamnet and Train Dreams, the field is packed. International cinema has also shone brightly with features like It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value. With such depth, this year's Globes could see long-standing audience favourites pipped at the post by a film hitting its critical peak at the perfect moment.
Key Category Predictions and Potential Upsets
Best Motion Picture – Drama: This category is brimming with talent. While Frankenstein's moment may have passed, international powerhouses like Sentimental Value and It Was Just an Accident bring unique flavours. The emotional pull of Hamnet, adapting the bestselling novel about Shakespeare's grief, is significant. However, the headline is the showdown between the fan and critic favourites Sinners and One Battle After Another, with momentum seeming to favour the former. Prediction: Sinners. Dark Horse: Hamnet.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy: Richard Linklater appears twice with Nouvelle Vague and Blue Moon, while Yorgos Lanthimos's Bugonia remains a delightfully odd contender. Park Chan-wook's No Other Choice is also admired. Yet, it likely narrows to two films: the Critics' Choice Award-winning One Battle After Another and the scrappy, ambitious Marty Supreme. Prediction: One Battle After Another. Dark Horse: Marty Supreme.
Best Director: A star-studded list includes Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). There's a sense this could be Paul Thomas Anderson's year for recognition after previous snubs, but Ryan Coogler remains a formidable threat. Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson. Dark Horse: Ryan Coogler.
Acting Awards: From Sure Things to Tight Races
Best Actress – Drama: With twelve nominees, including strong turns from Tessa Thompson and Julia Roberts, the category is deep. Yet, all signs point to a commanding win for Jessie Buckley for her radiant, vulnerable portrayal of Agnes in Hamnet. Jennifer Lawrence's raw performance in Die My Love could surprise. Prediction: Jessie Buckley. Dark Horse: Jennifer Lawrence.
Best Actor – Drama: Jeremy Allen White and Dwayne Johnson delivered impressive biopic performances that have lost steam, while Wagner Moura's Cannes win for The Secret Agent may not translate to a Globe. This seems the moment to honour Michael B. Jordan's dual role in Sinners, though Joel Edgerton's nuanced work in the accessible Netflix film Train Dreams is a genuine spoiler. Prediction: Michael B. Jordan. Dark Horse: Joel Edgerton.
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy: An exceptionally strong category. While Chase Infiniti dazzled in her debut and Emma Stone was wonderfully dark in Bugonia, this feels like a career-defining moment for Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. For sentimental reasons, Kate Hudson is a true contender for Song Sung Blue. Prediction: Rose Byrne. Dark Horse: Kate Hudson.
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy: A fascinating generational clash between Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another). Both delivered exceptional, stamina-showcasing performances. If they split the vote, the mesmerising Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon could finally claim a major award. Prediction: Timothée Chalamet/Leonardo DiCaprio. Dark Horse: Ethan Hawke.
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana Grande's emotionally deep turn as Glinda in Wicked: For Good might be where the franchise's awards magic holds, while Teyana Taylor was a fierce revelation in One Battle After Another. Prediction: Ariana Grande. Dark Horse: Teyana Taylor.
Best Supporting Actor: One Battle After Another co-stars Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn risk splitting the vote. If Hamnet fever takes hold, Paul Mescal's natural performance as Shakespeare could triumph, though Stellan Skarsgård's acclaimed work in Sentimental Value is a major threat. Prediction: Paul Mescal. Dark Horse: Stellan Skarsgård.
The 2026 Golden Globes promise a night where established narratives could be rewritten and new awards season favourites crowned. With the race this open, every winner and upset will send powerful ripples through the upcoming Oscar campaign.
