The 2026 Golden Globes ceremony this Sunday is shaping up to be a fascinating clash of cinematic titans, with major films like Sinners, Marty Supreme, and One Battle After Another vying for top honours. After a year that proved notoriously difficult to forecast, this season appears to have a clearer frontrunner. Paul Thomas Anderson's distinctive activist comedy One Battle After Another has swept the board so far, achieving the rare feat of winning best film at the New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, National Board of Review, and National Society of Film Critics.
The Major Contenders and Key Battles
Leading the nominations with nine, One Battle After Another is the film to beat. However, it faces stiff competition in the comedy categories from the box office juggernaut Marty Supreme and its star, Timothée Chalamet. On the drama side, the race is between two starkly different narratives: the epic Sinners and the literary adaptation Hamnet. The delayed efforts to diversify the Globes voting body are evident, with this year's Best Film (Drama) category featuring an unprecedented three foreign-language films and works from a diverse range of directors.
Category-by-Category Forecast
Best Film (Drama) is poised for a nail-biter between Sinners and Hamnet. While Sinners holds the popular vote and is considered by many to be the superior film, Hamnet fits the traditional mould of a Globes winner. Recent momentum, including surprise acting nominations for Miles Caton and Wunmi Mosaku, suggests Sinners will clinch the win.
In Best Female Actor (Drama), Jessie Buckley is the overwhelming favourite for her performance in Hamnet. Despite early awards going to Rose Byrne, Buckley's recent Critics Choice Award win and the powerful, tearjerking finale of her film make her victory seem almost certain.
Best Male Actor (Drama) is less clear-cut. The race has cooled on biopic performances, leaving a likely showdown between Michael B. Jordan for Sinners and Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent. Moura's critical acclaim, including a Cannes win, might give him the edge for the award.
The Best Film (Comedy or Musical) category is One Battle After Another's to lose. As the most nominated film with a near-perfect precursor season, it stands far above competitors like Marty Supreme, which is seen as more of a vehicle for a single performance.
Best Female Actor (Comedy/Musical) will almost certainly go to Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. Her career-best work has dominated the early awards, and her status as a Globes-friendly star makes her a safe bet.
In Best Male Actor (Comedy/Musical), the battle is between Leonardo DiCaprio and Timothée Chalamet. While DiCaprio is hilariously effective, the Globes' history of rewarding young male talent and the ecstatic praise for Chalamet's turn in Marty Supreme points to a first Globes win for Chalamet.
Supporting and Directing Categories
The Best Female Supporting Actor race is a tight contest between Amy Madigan's terrifying witch in Weapons and Teyana Taylor's revolutionary in One Battle After Another. Madigan's wins at the New York critics and Critics Choice awards give her a slight advantage.
For Best Male Supporting Actor, Jacob Elordi is the predicted winner for his transformative role in Frankenstein. His Critics Choice win and the showy, unrecognisable nature of his performance are classic awards bait.
The Best Director award is likely a duel between Ryan Coogler for Sinners and Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another. Given the latter film's nomination dominance and season-long momentum, Anderson is forecast to secure his first Golden Globe.
This year's ceremony promises to be a compelling indicator of Oscar trends, with established auteurs, box office hits, and critically adored indies all fighting for recognition. The expanded and diversified voting body may also lead to some unexpected and historic wins come Sunday night.
