Australia Braces for Catastrophic Heatwave and Fire Conditions
South-east Australia is facing an unprecedented heatwave that threatens to shatter historical temperature records while creating extreme to catastrophic fire conditions across multiple states. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued warnings for a prolonged period of intense heat affecting South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and southern Queensland.
Record-Breaking Temperatures Forecast
Meteorologists predict that some inland areas could experience more than five consecutive days with temperatures soaring above 40°C. The heat dome pushing into the region could see temperatures climb into the high 40s, potentially breaking all-time records in several states.
Senior meteorologist Jonathan How emphasised that this heat would be "challenging for everyone" and urged residents to stay cool while remaining vigilant about heat and fire warnings. The situation is particularly concerning as fires continue to burn in many parts of Victoria following an intense heatwave earlier in January.
State-by-State Impact Assessment
The heatwave's impact varies across affected regions:
- Victoria: Some centres in the Mallee region could see temperatures approaching 49°C on Tuesday, challenging the state's record of 48.8°C set in Hopetoun in February 2009. Mildura is expected to experience escalating temperatures from 43°C on Saturday to 48°C by Tuesday.
- New South Wales: The heat is predicted to peak on Sunday and again midweek, with the Riverina, central west, and northern regions facing the most severe conditions. Bourke could reach 49°C on Wednesday, approaching the state's all-time record of 50.1°C.
- South Australia: The Yorke Peninsula faces catastrophic fire danger on Saturday, while Adelaide is forecast to reach 42°C on the same day.
- Queensland: The small town of Thargomindah in the south-west could hit 48°C on both Wednesday and Thursday.
Climate Context and Long-Term Trends
This extreme weather event occurs against a backdrop of significant climate changes. Australia experienced its fourth-warmest year on record in 2025, with national average temperatures increasing by 1.23°C. Climate analysts have determined that the January heatwave that preceded these conditions was made five times more likely due to global heating.
The climate crisis continues to increase both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events across Australia. According to the latest long-range forecasts, hotter than average days and nights are expected to persist until April for much of the country, while sea surface temperatures remain elevated both globally and around Australia's coastline.
Additional Weather Developments
While south-east Australia faces extreme heat, Western Australia continues to experience heat and fire warnings alongside developing tropical systems. A tropical low located 660km north-west of Broome is expected to intensify into a category two cyclone named Luana as it approaches the Kimberley coast.
Despite the absence of meaningful rainfall forecasts for the coming days, meteorologists note that winds during this heatwave are not expected to be as gusty or damaging as in previous extreme weather events, offering some relief from additional fire-spreading conditions.
