El Niño Formation in Pacific Could Trigger Record Global Temperatures by 2027
Weather agencies and climate experts are monitoring the Pacific Ocean for signs of an El Niño event, which could propel global temperatures to new record highs in 2027. This phenomenon occurs when warmer-than-average waters accumulate in the eastern equatorial Pacific and stretch towards the American coastline, typically resulting in unusually hot weather conditions worldwide.
Scientific Forecasts and Uncertainties
Both the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology have indicated that some climate models predict an El Niño formation later this year. However, they emphasise that these projections come with significant uncertainties due to the complex nature of ocean-atmosphere interactions.
Dr Andrew Watkins, a climate scientist at Monash University and former head of long-range forecasts at the Australian bureau, explained: "We have substantial warm water stored in the western tropical Pacific. When trade winds ease, this water typically shifts eastward, warming areas off South America—a classic precursor to El Niño development."
Timing and Potential Impacts
Experts suggest that if an El Niño forms, it would likely peak between November and January, with its most pronounced effects on global surface temperatures emerging in 2027 rather than 2026. Dr Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth noted that the previous El Niño, which lasted from mid-2023 to April 2024, added approximately 0.12°C to global temperatures in 2024.
Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto, an ENSO specialist at the University of New South Wales, described the current forecasting challenge: "With the ongoing La Niña phase ending, predicting beyond that is difficult. The chances of El Niño developing versus neutral conditions in June to August are currently about fifty-fifty—like tossing a coin."
Broader Climate Context
The past three years have consecutively ranked among the top three warmest on record globally. Dr Watkins observed that human-induced global heating, primarily from fossil fuel combustion, has become so dominant that it is now overwhelming natural year-to-year climate variability.
He remarked: "I would hesitate to bet against another hottest year on record. The background warming trend is so strong that we might not even require a powerful El Niño event to achieve these elevated temperatures."
This developing situation underscores the intricate relationship between natural climate cycles like the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the accelerating impacts of anthropogenic climate change, with potential ramifications for weather extremes and temperature records in the coming years.
