Next year is projected to be the fourth in a row where global temperatures soar more than 1.4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to a stark new forecast from the UK's Met Office. The prediction underscores the relentless pace of human-induced climate change, driven by fossil fuel pollution.
A Relentless Surge in Global Temperatures
The central forecast suggests 2026 will see temperatures between 1.34C and 1.58C hotter than the 1850-1900 average. While this is slightly cooler than the record 1.55C reached in 2024, it solidifies a worrying trend. The year is set to rank among the four hottest years since 1850.
"The last three years are all likely to have exceeded 1.4C, and we expect 2026 will be the fourth year in succession to do this," stated Adam Scaife, the Met Office climate scientist who led the forecast. "Prior to this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3C."
Breaching the Paris Agreement Threshold
This sustained heating brings the world perilously close to the landmark target set at the Paris climate summit a decade ago, where leaders pledged to limit global warming to 1.5C by the end of the century. Although the target is measured as a 30-year average, making it still technically achievable, individual years are now repeatedly brushing against this critical limit.
"2024 saw the first temporary exceedance of 1.5C and our forecast for 2026 suggests this is possible again," explained Met Office scientist Nick Dunstone. "This highlights how rapidly we are now approaching the 1.5C Paris agreement target."
The Unforgiving Backdrop of Carbon Pollution
The forecasts come amidst a blanket of heat-trapping gases that continues to smother the planet, jeopardising the stable climate in which human civilisation has developed. This pollution, from power plants, vehicles, and industrial processes, fuels more extreme weather and increases the risk of catastrophic climate tipping points.
The natural climate phenomenon El Niño provided an additional boost to temperatures in 2023 and 2024. While this has given way to a weakly cooling La Niña phase in 2025, its effect is dwarfed by the overwhelming influence of human emissions. Furthermore, scientists are concerned that the Earth's natural carbon sinks, like forests and oceans, may be beginning to fail under the strain.
Separately, EU scientists at the Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed that 2025 is 'virtually certain' to be the second or third-hottest year on record. Data showed the average global temperature from January to November 2024 was 1.48C above pre-industrial levels, identical to the anomaly recorded in 2023.
The consecutive years of extreme heat serve as a powerful reminder that the window for decisive action to curb emissions and limit the worst impacts of the climate crisis is closing fast.
