Politicians in the UK and Belgium are consistently underestimating the strength of public backing for climate policies, a major new study has revealed. The research, led by the University of Cambridge, found that lawmakers often mistake a vocal minority for the majority, creating a barrier to stronger environmental action.
The Perception Gap in Westminster and Flanders
The study, which is being published in a prominent journal, surveyed 100 current UK MPs in early 2025, alongside over 600 Flemish politicians in Belgium. Their estimates of public support for various green measures were compared with actual polling data from Ipsos and the University of Antwerp.
The results showed a significant and consistent gap. UK MPs underestimated public support for a frequent flyer levy and taxes on less environmentally friendly products by about 15%. They also misjudged backing for a tax on red meat and dairy by 18%, and for home energy efficiency grants by 7%.
In Belgium, the misperception was even starker. Politicians there underestimated support for policies like taxing short-haul flights and preventing local blocks on wind farms by approximately 25%.
The Consequences of Misreading the Public Mood
This misapprehension has direct political consequences. The study's lead researcher, Dr Lisa-Maria Tanase, who was recently awarded a PhD for this work, stated that the data showed when MPs believed support was lacking, they were less willing to speak up for the policies in the UK, and less likely to vote for them in Belgium.
"They said one of the key barriers to them implementing stronger climate action is the fact that the public, in their opinion, was simply not ready," Tanase said, summarising interviews with former UK MPs. "Due to these misperceptions, even willing politicians who want to do more felt their hands were tied."
Why Are Politicians Getting It Wrong?
The research points to a distorted information environment. Tanase suggests a "rightwing bias" where more privileged, educated, and politically engaged conservative voices are overrepresented in the feedback politicians receive via letters and constituency meetings.
"The people more likely to engage with politicians are very specific types politically – they don't necessarily represent the majority," she explained. This is compounded by anti-climate disinformation from lobby groups and sensational headlines.
One senior policymaker interviewed noted that politicians hear far more from those who stand to lose from green policies than from the silent majority who stand to gain.
Can the Spiral of Silence Be Broken?
There is a potential solution. When a group of the Belgian politicians were informed of the true level of public support, their estimates for other green policies improved by 10 percentage points compared to a control group. However, they still underestimated support by about 7%, showing the misperceptions are deeply ingrained.
Tanase argues that increasing awareness of this perception gap is crucial. "Showing there is stronger support than assumed could give encouragement that there is public backing and that it's politically viable," she said. This could help unlock a social tipping point, countering the "spiral of silence" where people who support climate action mistakenly believe they are in the minority.
The findings highlight a critical disconnect in democratic representation, suggesting that a more accurate understanding of public opinion could accelerate the policy response to the climate crisis.
