Dreams of a picture-perfect white Christmas could become a reality for some parts of Britain this year, according to the latest long-range outlook from the Met Office. While the national forecaster has indicated that significant cold weather is currently less probable, there remains a chance for festive snowfall in specific regions just in time for 25 December.
What the Met Office Christmas Forecast Predicts
The weather in the days leading up to Christmas is expected to be unsettled, bringing further rain and showers across the UK. However, a shift is anticipated around the festive period itself. The Met Office forecasts that high pressure will build, leading to calmer and more settled conditions. This change should reduce the widespread rain, potentially offering clearer skies for Santa's journey on Christmas Eve.
This increase in pressure does bring its own seasonal features. The forecaster warns that it could lead to an increase in overnight frost and fog, creating a crisp, if not snowy, Christmas morning for many.
The Elusive History of a UK White Christmas
For the Met Office to officially declare a white Christmas, just a single snowflake needs to be observed falling at a recognised weather station during the 24 hours of 25 December. Despite this low bar, genuine festive snow is a rarity in modern Britain.
Statistically, snow is more common in January and February. On average, snow settles on the ground for 3 days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January and 3.4 days in February. Since 1960, only four years have seen a widespread covering of snow on Christmas Day: 1981, 1995, 2009, and 2010.
The last major white Christmas was in 2010, when 83% of weather stations recorded snow on the ground. While it created classic scenes, it also caused severe travel chaos, with cancelled flights and trains, icy roads, and hundreds of school closures across Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. More recently, 2023 technically saw a white Christmas with 11% of stations reporting falling snow, though none noted it settling.
Climate change, bringing higher average temperatures, has further reduced the likelihood of a snowy 25 December.
Which UK Areas Have the Best Chance of Snow?
If snow does fall this Christmas, the Met Office suggests it will most likely be confined to high ground in the north. This means the best chances for a white Christmas are in:
- The Scottish Highlands
- Aberdeenshire
- Moray
- Angus
- Perth and Kinross
The forecaster stresses that it is still too early to confirm definitively whether snow will fall on Christmas Day and advises the public to keep an eye on daily forecasts for updates as the holiday approaches.
