The NHS is grappling with a severe flu season, with cases reaching record levels for the time of year, prompting urgent discussions about public health measures and warnings of potentially thousands of deaths.
Flu Pressure and a Glimmer of Hope
Official figures show flu cases in England jumped by a staggering 55% in just one week, hitting a record seasonal high. However, NHS England's chief executive, Sir Jim Mackey, offered a cautious note, suggesting the situation "might be starting to settle in some parts of the country." He told the Health and Social Care Committee that the NHS's ability to maintain key performance metrics gave him "heart" that lessons had been learned from previous challenging winters.
Sir Jim described the recent period as the health service's "first contact with winter in a pretty nasty way," highlighting significant pressure from accelerating flu rates just two weeks prior.
No National Mask Mandate, Says Health Secretary
Amid calls for clearer guidance, Health Secretary Wes Streeting addressed the issue of face coverings directly. Appearing before MPs on Wednesday, he stated the "time has not yet come" for a universal public mask mandate.
Instead, he emphasised a localised approach, supporting frontline NHS and care leaders to decide whether to ask visitors to wear masks in their specific settings based on local pressure. "There will be places where that’s happening," he said, expressing confidence that the public would comply. He firmly ruled out a blanket national requirement at this stage.
Expert Warns of Potential for 'Thousands of Deaths'
Leading infectious disease experts provided a sobering perspective on the ongoing outbreak. Dr Leon Peto, a consultant at the University of Oxford, stated current data does not yet prove this season is worse than a typical significant flu year. However, he issued a stark reminder of the virus's impact.
"Even in the flu years that we’ve had recently since Covid, it has led to many thousands of deaths and lots of severe illness, lots of disruption," Dr Peto said. He acknowledged concerns about a new variant and early transmission but noted "nobody really knows where the peak is going to be." He warned that if a larger peak materialises, it "can cause a lot of deaths."
Recent mortality data underscores the threat:
- 2022-2023 season: 15,867 deaths in England (peak).
- 2024-2025 season: 7,757 deaths.
- 2023-2024 season: 3,555 deaths.
'Floundering' on Flu Treatments
Professor Sir Peter Horby, director of the Pandemic Sciences Institute at Oxford, delivered a critical assessment of the UK's preparedness for treating severe influenza. He revealed a startling gap in medical capability, stating "we have a really poor pipeline of treatments for flu."
With an estimated 2,500 people currently hospitalised with flu, Sir Peter lamented, "We don’t have any treatments that are proven to be effective in patients with severe influenza." He contrasted this with the progress on Covid-19, noting, "We’ve got more treatments for Covid, which is five years old, than we do for flu, which is 90 years old," attributing the shortfall to a lack of investment and adequate clinical trials.
He also called for better vaccines, highlighting the absence of an mRNA or universal flu vaccine. The latest official flu case figures are due to be published on Thursday.
