West Point Analysis: Hormuz Blockade Strangles US Defense Supply Chains
A stark new analysis from West Point's Modern War Institute warns that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is creating a "paralyzing, real-time problem" for the United States defense industrial base. The report details how this maritime chokepoint blockade is severely disrupting the flow of critical minerals essential for manufacturing munitions and repairing military equipment damaged in Middle Eastern conflicts.
Cascading Crisis in Critical Mineral Supply
The institute's report highlights a "near total" disruption of seaborne trade for sulphur, a vital upstream input for extracting strategic minerals like copper and cobalt. These materials are fundamental components in everything from advanced microprocessors and jet engines to the batteries powering military drones. With approximately half of the world's total sulphur shipments traditionally passing through the Strait of Hormuz, prices have spiked nearly 25% since the conflict began, marking a staggering 165% year-on-year increase.
"These minerals dictate how fast things can be built and scaled under the pressure of an ongoing war," the analysis states, emphasizing that the effects of such a sudden supply shock on US defense readiness have never been adequately modeled. The situation raises alarming questions about the nation's ability to sustain a prolonged military effort.
From Sulphur Shock to Readiness Problem
Sulphur, primarily a byproduct of crude oil refining, is burned to produce sulphuric acid—the world's most produced industrial chemical. This acid is indispensable for extracting copper and cobalt from low-grade ores. The Middle East produces roughly 24% of the global sulphur supply, making the Hormuz blockade particularly devastating.
Copper is designated a strategic material, embedded in the transformers, motors, and communications hardware that enable military bases and defense factories to function. The report offers specific, sobering estimates: replacing just two major US radars destroyed in Bahrain and Qatar will require over thirty thousand kilograms of copper. Thousands more kilograms are needed to repair other damaged communication equipment, sensors, and radars across Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
"The current sulfur shock is becoming a copper problem, and that copper problem risks quickly becoming a readiness and resilience problem," the authors conclude, labeling this a "prelogistical crisis" that previous military planning tragically treated as "background noise."
Opacity in Defense Contractor Supply Chains
Compounding the physical shortage is a severe lack of transparency within the defense industrial base. According to Lieutenant Colonel Jahara "Franky" Matisek, a US Air Force officer, nonresident fellow at the US Naval War College, and co-author of the analysis, this is a "cascading issue." In a telephone conversation, Matisek warned that a "knock-on effect of this war is that it may cost double or more than double to replace all these weapons because all the mineral demand is going to go way up."
He expressed grave concern that markets may be unable to provide the volume of minerals needed to replace destroyed radars and expended munitions. "It's a really precarious spot to be in right now," Matisek stated.
A separate February analysis co-written by Matisek found that only 6% of US defense contractors have fully transparent supply chains. The new report argues this opacity has resulted in a military effort constrained by "upstream conditions it cannot control," discovering that "its combat endurance is capped by the invisible industrial foundations needed to replenish it."
Matisek criticized the dependence on large prime contractors who guard their supply chain data as proprietary information. "They don't want anyone knowing how many minerals they're buying to make a missile," he said. "From a strategic... perspective, we can't actually allow them to do that any more because we actually need to know this."
He described a labyrinthine system where, beyond a few subcontractors, "nobody actually knows who's providing these metals, these minerals, the parts. And it just becomes a maze."
Broader Implications for Munitions and Explosives
The crisis extends beyond copper and cobalt. Sulphur is also a key ingredient in the high explosives used in munitions. Matisek pointed out that only two companies manufacture these critical "energetics." If these firms have not received orders to ramp up production amidst the "sulphur crunch," it presents a highly problematic bottleneck for replenishing US arsenals.
"There's just sort of like a crunch for all these minerals that you need to actually spin up to make all this stuff," Matisek added, painting a picture of a defense industrial base facing simultaneous pressure on multiple, interconnected fronts.
The Guardian contacted the US Department of Defense for comment on these findings. The West Point analysis serves as a urgent wake-up call, highlighting how geopolitical strife in a key maritime corridor can trigger a supply chain catastrophe that directly undermines national security and military preparedness on the other side of the globe.
