Iran's Regional Allies Show Restraint in Escalating US-Israel Conflict
Iranian-backed militias across the Middle East, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shia groups in Iraq, have launched attacks against Israel and the United States in retaliation for the ongoing US-Israeli offensive against Tehran. However, analysts and regional officials report that these forces have so far refrained from escalating into a full-scale confrontation, indicating a strategic pause in the 12-day war.
Strategic Reserve or Command Breakdown?
The relative restraint observed among Iran's proxies suggests that Tehran may view these militias as a strategic reserve, to be deployed only if the conflict intensifies further. Alternatively, this hesitation could signal a breakdown in Iranian command and control systems, complicating coordination across the region.
Hezbollah, an Islamist militant movement with close ties to Iran, entered the conflict early by launching missile and drone attacks at Israel following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader. In Iraq, Shia militias have targeted US diplomatic facilities, such as a recent strike in Baghdad, and have previously attacked Israeli and US bases in Jordan.
Houthis on Standby as US Warships Approach
The Yemen-based Houthis, part of Iran's "axis of resistance" coalition, have not yet reopened hostilities with the US or joined Tehran's retaliatory attacks on Israel, Gulf neighbours, or shipping lanes. Last week, the Houthis warned that their "fingers are on the trigger," heightening tensions as US warships approach critical Red Sea chokepoints.
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil supply route, the Red Sea shipping lanes have become increasingly important. No attacks have been reported in the Red Sea since the Iran war began, but threats persist, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center.
Key Test Ahead for Houthi Intentions
Observers highlight the imminent passage of a US aircraft carrier battle group through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait at the eastern end of the Red Sea as a pivotal moment. This event will test the Houthis' intentions, as they possess mines, drones, artillery, and a range of missiles.
Michael Knights, a regional expert at Horizon Engage, noted, "The axis of resistance will never get a better chance to set a US aircraft carrier on fire." The Houthis have received extensive support from Tehran over decades and recently praised the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's supreme leader as "a new victory for the Islamic Revolution."
Domestic Considerations Influence Houthi Decisions
Experts suggest that the Houthis may decide against active involvement in the current conflict, as they weigh domestic considerations rather than simply following orders from Tehran. Allison Minor of the Atlantic Council explained, "Getting involved in the Iran war is a potential scenario, but would not yield the same domestic and international benefits for the Houthis that attacking Israel and Red Sea shipping during the Gaza war did."
Last week, analyst Phillip Smyth suggested that Tehran might be holding the Houthis "in reserve," or that the movement's leaders could be "hedging their bets in case the Iranian regime collapses."
Violence Flares in Iraq as Proxy Battleground
In Iraq, violence continues to escalate, with Iranian-backed armed groups reporting airstrikes that killed four fighters at a base in northern Iraq. These attacks, likely carried out by the US or Israel, follow daily assaults by pro-Iranian militias against US bases in Erbil and Kurdish factions.
Since the war began, unconfirmed reports indicate US and Israeli special forces operations against Shia militia groups in Iraq's western desert, resulting in casualties among Iraqi government troops. Multiple air strikes have targeted militia bases across Iraq, while Jordan has faced Iranian attacks, including missiles and drones that destroyed a valuable US radar at Muwaffaq Salti airbase.
Limited Capabilities and Fear of Retaliation
Pro-Iranian militia fighters in Iraq have posted videos boasting of strikes against US and Israeli targets, but their ability to inflict serious harm is doubted. A regional security official stated, "They could be doing more than they are doing now. The weapons they have are not the best, and they are clearly worried about getting hit hard if they cause serious harm."
Iraq has long been a proxy battleground since the 2003 US-led invasion, with current leaders seeking to avoid deeper involvement. Militias like Kataeb Imam Ali and Kataib Hezbollah have been repeatedly targeted by US forces, resulting in casualties estimated at 20-30 fighters and about 20 civilians in Kurdistan.
Historical Context and Future Scenarios
The Houthis previously launched missiles at Israel and struck Red Sea shipping in solidarity with Palestinians during the Israeli offensive into Gaza, triggered by Hamas's surprise attack in October 2023. This led to Israeli bombings and a US offensive, culminating in an uneasy ceasefire deal.
Analysts warn that a potential scenario could involve the Houthis attacking Saudi Arabia, exploiting the kingdom's vulnerabilities, as seen in a 2022 attack on oil infrastructure. As tensions simmer, the Middle East remains on edge, with Iran's proxies balancing retaliation against the risks of all-out war.
