Initiative May Be Slipping from US and Israel as Middle East Crisis Deepens
There is little sign of imminent regime change in Iran as its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to shock the global economy. Few doubt that in the first days of the new war in the Middle East, the initiative belonged to the United States and its ally Israel. However, the situation now appears far less certain.
Confident Statements from Iranian Officials
Mohsen Rezaee, a senior officer in Iran's Revolutionary Guards, stated on Sunday that "the end of the war is in our hands" and called for the withdrawal of Washington's forces from the Gulf region, along with compensation for all damage caused by the assault. Just three weeks ago, it seemed unlikely that Tehran's senior officials would ever sound quite so confident.
The conflict began with a surprise strike by Israel that killed the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. US and Israeli warplanes then swiftly demonstrated their ability to operate with impunity over Iran, drawing on deep reserves of intelligence to strike thousands of targets. The only significant losses during this phase were inflicted by friendly fire.
Iranian Retaliation and Regional Impact
Iran retaliated with barrages of missiles and drones launched at Israel, most of which were intercepted by Israel's sophisticated air defense systems. So far, 12 people have been killed in Israel by attacks originating from Iran. This toll remains substantially lower than in the much shorter conflict between the two powers last year.
Countries in the Gulf region fared less well when targeted by Iran, though they have still managed to protect their residents and critical infrastructure from crippling damage. However, questions remain about whether their stocks of crucial interceptor missiles will run out, and their reputation as oases of calm, luxury, and wealth has been severely damaged.
The Critical Change: Strait of Hormuz Closure
The most significant development has been Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies. This strategic move has sent shock waves through the global economy, causing oil prices to soar and triggering spikes in prices at fuel pumps worldwide. The US president now faces mounting domestic and international pressure to bring hostilities to a rapid conclusion.
Despite daily demonstrations of massive conventional military superiority through continued strikes on Iran, it appears the initiative may be slipping away from the US and Israel. Donald Trump has provided multiple timelines for the conflict's duration, but in recent days has suggested it would only end after Iran has been forced to make concessions. Many analysts believe the United States is becoming trapped in a much longer war than originally intended.
Divergent Expert Perspectives
Danny Orbach, a professor of military history at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, maintains that Israel and the US continue to direct the war's dynamic. "Having the initiative means you are setting the agenda," Orbach explained. "Iran is running out of missile launchers, so the only option open to Tehran was to escalate the conflict and hope that somehow it will stop. That is why it attacked the Gulf states and then closed the Strait of Hormuz."
Some have suggested that Trump could order US Marines currently en route to the Middle East to seize Kharg Island, Iran's principal oil export hub, to pressure Tehran. However, these forces will not arrive for at least two weeks. Alternatively, Trump may order the destruction of oil facilities on Kharg Island, potentially crippling Iran's economy for years to come. So far, only military targets have been struck there, a choice Trump described on Saturday as being made "out of decency."
Orbach emphasized, "Iran is dependent on a US decision on whether to blow up or not their economy. If there is any stalemate, it is not an equal one."
Alternative Analysis: Iran's Strategic Success
Other analysts offer contrasting perspectives. Peter Neumann, a professor of security studies at King's College London, believes Iran has played a difficult hand successfully. "For a number of days now, the US has been trying to find a good response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which they clearly didn't expect," Neumann stated. "I think the Iranians now have the initiative."
Trump has called on other countries to send warships to join US efforts to reopen the strategic waterway. None have accepted thus far, and most analysts consider such an operation fraught with risk. Protecting hundreds of tankers would demand the diversion of enormous military resources and could never guarantee total security for shipping. A single Iranian missile, mine, or small boat loaded with explosives could have devastating consequences.
This suggests the decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will ultimately need to be made in Tehran. There is little evidence that Iran's current leadership is inclined to take any action that would mitigate the threat to the global economy, nor that the regime change Israel and the US hoped to achieve is imminent.
Neumann added, "Despite the great success in destroying military and economic infrastructure in Iran, this hasn't had the desired political effect. The regime seems weak but stable."
Lowered Expectations and Regional Dynamics
Israeli commentators on Sunday described government efforts to lower expectations raised at the war's outset. Yoav Limor wrote in the mass-market newspaper Israel Hayom that officials now believe regime change is less likely, blaming "the powerful grip the regime has continued to maintain on the security forces and the ruthless suppression that deeply terrified the Iranian public."
Within this spiraling regional crisis, smaller conflicts may follow their own dynamics. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq still appear unwilling to commit entirely to Iran's defense, while the Houthis in Yemen have yet to enter hostilities.
Hezbollah's Surprising Strength
In Lebanon, Hezbollah surprised Israel by seeking to avenge Khamenei's death with extensive barrages of missiles and drones. Since then, the Iran-backed Islamist movement has continued firing salvoes into northern Israel, revealing military strength unsuspected by many analysts.
Israel has responded with a massive air offensive that has killed more than 800 people and forced approximately 800,000 to flee their homes.
David Wood, a Lebanon analyst at the non-profit International Crisis Group, noted that Hezbollah does not hold the same cards as the Iranians. "Israel has clear and ambitious aims of eliminating Hezbollah as a threat to its national security, though their means of achieving this are unclear. Hezbollah has one clear objective: to survive," Wood explained. "Hezbollah might have surprised even the Israelis at the beginning of the conflict, but we shouldn't assume it will be able to maintain that over the long term given Israel's massive military superiority."
