Nigeria and DRC Experience Surge in Jihadist Violence as Global Terrorism Deaths Drop
Jihadist violence in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo escalated dramatically last year, even as worldwide fatalities from terrorism fell to their lowest point in ten years, according to a comprehensive new report. Nigeria witnessed the most significant increase in terrorism-related deaths globally in 2025, with fatalities soaring by 46% from 513 in 2024 to 750. This alarming rise places Nigeria fourth in the Global Terrorism Index, trailing only Pakistan, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
Deadly Attacks Highlight Nigeria's Multifaceted Security Crisis
Africa's most populous nation is confronting a complex and severe security crisis as extremist factions, including Boko Haram and its splinter groups, strive to establish control over extensive territories. In a particularly brutal incident in February, 162 individuals were massacred in Kwara state near the border with the Benin Republic, marking one of the deadliest single attacks in Nigeria's recent history. The nation also contends with various ethnic militias and criminal elements, such as "bandit" groups, predominantly active in northern and central regions. Emerging threats, including terrorists from the Lakurawa group, further complicate the security landscape.
Recent military engagements underscore the ongoing conflict. On Wednesday, the Nigerian army reported that troops, supported by air power, successfully repelled a coordinated assault by Islamist insurgents on a military base in Borno state, resulting in the deaths of at least 80 fighters, including senior commanders. This attack followed multiple suicide bombings in Maiduguri, Borno's capital, on Monday, which killed at least 23 people and injured over 100.
DRC Sees Significant Rise in Terrorism Fatalities
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, terrorism-related deaths increased by nearly 28% in 2025, climbing from 365 to 467. This surge propelled the central African state to eighth place on the Global Terrorism Index, its worst ranking to date. The rise is primarily attributed to the activities of the IS-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), which have intensified attacks in the region.
Global Trends Show Decline Amid Regional Escalations
The increase in violence in Nigeria and the DRC starkly contrasts with global patterns. The Global Terrorism Index, produced by the Australian thinktank Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), documented a worldwide decline in terrorism deaths of 28% to 5,582 in 2025, with total attacks falling by nearly 22%. However, the report notes a 280% increase in terrorism fatalities in the West, with 57 deaths recorded in 2025, including 28 in the United States—the highest figure since 2019. This rise is increasingly driven by youth radicalization and lone-wolf actors.
Steve Killelea, founder of IEP, warned: "Viewed in totality, these trends point to one sobering conclusion: a fracturing world order risks erasing the hard-fought gains made against terrorism over the past decade."
Sahel Region Remains Epicenter of Global Terrorism
More than half of all terrorism deaths worldwide in 2025 occurred in the Sahel, which is considered the epicenter of global terrorism, despite a decrease from the previous year. Burkina Faso, where the junta controls only about one-third of the territory, recorded the largest reduction in terrorism deaths globally, with fatalities halving in 2025 and civilian casualties plummeting by 84%.
Experts suggest this shift indicates that the al-Qaida affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) is deliberately reducing attacks on civilians to win "hearts and minds" and consolidate territorial gains with growing sophistication. Killelea explained, "For JNIM, the change in tactics can perhaps best be explained by the 'value v vulnerability' trade-off. Military forces and political figures are considered high-value targets. As JNIM now controls more territory, it is better able to carry out attacks on higher value targets."
Evolving Tactics and Border Region Concentrations
This tactical adjustment aligns with a broader pattern of jihadists launching coordinated and sophisticated assaults on military bases across the region as counterinsurgency operations intensify. JNIM, which frequently employs drones, has utilized them in over 100 instances of drone violence across the Sahel in the past three years. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), there have also been 16 drone incidents involving the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) since 2014.
Ladd Serwat, ACLED's senior analyst for Africa, noted: "Ten of the ISWAP incidents involved drone attacks and the remainder were intelligence-gathering or surveillance missions used to prepare ground offensives against military targets."
The report further highlights a growing concentration of terrorist attacks in border regions, including the Central Sahel tri-border area and the Lake Chad Basin, underscoring the transnational nature of the threat and the challenges in securing these volatile zones.
