A comprehensive study published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a prominent US thinktank, has revealed staggering military casualty figures from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to the report, the war has resulted in nearly 2 million military casualties—including killed, wounded, or missing personnel—across both nations since the invasion began nearly four years ago.
Russia Bears the Heaviest Losses
The CSIS analysis indicates that Russian forces have endured the brunt of these devastating losses. Estimates suggest that as many as 325,000 Russian troops have been killed, out of a total estimated casualty count of 1.2 million. This figure underscores the immense human cost borne by Moscow's military apparatus over the protracted conflict.
Ukrainian Military Casualties
Ukrainian forces have also suffered significant casualties, though on a somewhat lower scale. The study reports that between 500,000 and 600,000 Ukrainian military personnel have become casualties from February 2022 to December 2025. Of these, between 100,000 and 140,000 are estimated to have been killed in action.
The thinktank warns that combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach as high as 1.8 million, with the potential to hit two million total by the spring of 2026. This projection highlights the ongoing intensity of the fighting and the grim trajectory of the war.
Civilian Toll and Official Figures
Beyond military losses, the conflict has exacted a heavy toll on civilians. United Nations monitors have verified almost 15,000 civilian deaths since 2022, but they caution that the actual total is likely considerably higher due to reporting challenges in conflict zones.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy provided a lower estimate in February 2025, stating that his country had lost nearly 46,000 troops since 2022, with tens of thousands more missing or taken prisoner. However, analysts widely consider this figure to be an underestimate, reflecting the complexities of wartime casualty reporting.
In contrast, Russian losses remain shrouded in secrecy. The last official figures from Russia's Ministry of Defence, released in September 2022, put the death toll at just 5,937, according to Agence France-Presse. Independent investigations by the BBC's Russian service and the Mediazona outlet, which rely on publicly available data such as death notices, have identified more than 163,000 Russian soldiers killed over four years of war. These sources acknowledge that the true number is likely even higher.
Recent Attacks and Humanitarian Crisis
The release of the CSIS study coincides with a wave of fresh violence in Ukraine. A Russian drone strike on a passenger train in the Kharkiv region killed five people, with prosecutors reporting that fragments of five bodies were found at the scene. President Zelenskyy denounced the attack as terrorism, noting that the train was carrying over 200 passengers, including 18 in the carriage that was hit.
"Each such Russian strike undermines diplomacy, which is still ongoing, and hits, in particular, the efforts of partners who are helping to end this war," Zelenskyy wrote in a Telegram post.
This incident was part of broader Russian drone and missile attacks that left 10 dead and dozens wounded across Ukraine. Among the injured were two children and a pregnant woman. In Odesa, a drone strike killed three and wounded 32, while causing "enormous" damage to a power facility, according to the private energy firm DTEK.
Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that 710,000 residents of Kyiv remained without electricity and heating following these attacks. Such conditions pose a severe threat during the freezing winter months, potentially leading to further casualties. Additional attacks were reported in the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.
Diplomatic Tensions Over Starlink
Amid the escalating violence, diplomatic tensions have flared over the use of technology in the conflict. Poland's Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, who also serves as deputy prime minister, has publicly urged Elon Musk to cut Russia's access to the Starlink satellite internet service. This call came after the US-based Institute for the Study of War reported that the Russian army is using Starlink satellites to guide drone attacks deep into Ukrainian territory.
Sikorski posted on X, addressing Musk directly: "Hey, big man, @elonmusk, why don't you stop the Russians from using Starlinks to target Ukrainian cities. Making money on war crimes may damage your brand."
Musk denied in 2024 that Starlink terminals had been sold to Russia. However, Ukrainian intelligence services allege that the Russian military has obtained these terminals through third countries, rather than via any official contract with Musk or his companies.
The CSIS study and recent events underscore the profound and ongoing human cost of the Russia-Ukraine war, with military casualties approaching two million and civilian suffering intensifying amid continued attacks and technological controversies.
