War Plan Red: The 1930s US Strategy to Invade Canada
In the archives of military history lies a startling document: War Plan Red, a classified 1930 strategy drafted by the United States for a hypothetical war with Great Britain. At its heart was a detailed blueprint for invading Canada, America's northern neighbour and longstanding ally. The plan envisioned a swift, multipronged assault using poison gas, amphibious landings, and infrastructure sabotage to paralyse the country, with planners believing Canada would fall within days. For decades, this was viewed as a historical curiosity—a fanciful relic of a different era. Today, under the America First foreign policy of Donald Trump, those invasion plans have taken on a chilling new relevance.
A Blueprint for Conquest: The 1930 Invasion Strategy
The architects of War Plan Red conceived a ruthless campaign. American forces would first seize a strategically vital port city using poison gas munitions. Simultaneously, soldiers would sever undersea communication cables and destroy key bridges and rail lines, crippling Canada's infrastructure. Major population centres along the Great Lakes and river systems would be captured to quell civilian resistance. The invasion relied on coordinated ground forces, amphibious assaults, and the mass internment of citizens. US military planners, operating amid fears of a British war, conceded that defeat might mean ceding Alaska. However, they calculated that Canada's demographic concentration along the US border made it uniquely vulnerable to a rapid collapse.
Trump's New Imperialism and Revived Fears
The theoretical has edged toward the tangible under the Trump administration's fusion of economic nationalism and belligerent foreign policy. In early January, the US government ordered the capture of Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, with Trump announcing plans to seize the country's oil. Days later, both the President and senior officials openly discussed using military force to annex Greenland for its strategic Arctic position and mineral wealth. These actions signal a pivot toward an aggressive assertion of US "pre-eminence" in the Western Hemisphere, where allies are not exempt from scrutiny.
Trump has repeatedly rattled Canada with threats to redraw the "artificially drawn line" of the border, suggesting a unified continent was its natural state. In January, he posted an altered image on social media depicting the US flag enveloping Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela. Such rhetoric, condemned by Canadian lawmakers, has exposed a deep-seated anxiety: despite decades of economic integration, Canada remains perilously vulnerable to American aggression.
Canadian Vulnerability and the Modern Response
Experts warn that Canada's geographic and demographic reality makes it one of the world's most vulnerable states. Thomas Homer-Dixon, a Canadian conflict researcher at the Cascade Institute, notes the country's critical dependence on US friendship and benign intent—a reliance now in question. "All of a sudden, both those things have just disappeared. They've vanished," he states, highlighting how War Plan Red underscores enduring fears of US military action.
The Trump administration could, Homer-Dixon suggests, launch a campaign to "demonize" Canada by portraying the border as lawless and flooded with drugs, shifting American public perception. Alternatively, exploiting domestic tensions, such as a secession referendum in Alberta, could provide a pretext for intervention, with the US positioning itself as a liberator for a "51st state."
This perceived threat is translating into concrete action. A 2025 poll found 43% of Canadians believe a US military attack within five years is at least somewhat likely. In response, Canada's military is exploring plans to train federal and provincial employees in firearms, logistics, and drone operation, potentially expanding its supplementary reserve from under 4,400 to 300,000 personnel. The Cascade Institute has proposed a national service program, costing between C$1.1bn and C$5.2bn, to bolster civil defence.
A Future of Fortification and Alliances
Facing this uncertainty, Canada is urged to adopt a dual strategy. Homer-Dixon advocates deepening alliances with Scandinavian nations and embracing their defensive doctrine: "If you attack us, you may ultimately succeed, but it's going to really hurt." This represents a significant shift from decades of faith that deep economic integration rendered conflict unthinkable. "We fooled ourselves into thinking ['might makes right'] had gone away," Homer-Dixon reflects. "But it has re-emerged to the surface because it never left." As the spectre of War Plan Red looms anew, Canada is grappling with the fragile nature of its alliance and the urgent need to prepare for a world where its greatest friend could become its most formidable foe.
