World Enters Uncharted Territory as Final US-Russia Nuclear Treaty Expires

World Enters Uncharted Territory as Final US-Russia Nuclear Treaty Expires

For the first time in more than half a century, the world is entering a period with no legal limits on American and Russian nuclear missiles and warheads. The expiration of the New START treaty on Thursday marks a significant turning point in international security, ending decades of arms control cooperation between the world's two nuclear superpowers.

The End of an Era in Nuclear Arms Control

The last remaining treaty capping the nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States has now expired, creating what experts describe as a serious and unpredictable situation. Vasily Kashin, a research fellow at Moscow's Higher School of Economics, told Sky News that "there is a real danger of a nuclear arms race in the coming years" as both nations face no legal constraints on their strategic weapons development.

This development represents a stark departure from over fifty years of nuclear arms control agreements that began in 1972 with the signing of the first agreement between US President Richard Nixon and Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. Even during the height of the Cold War, these rival powers maintained agreements aimed at slowing the arms race and preventing catastrophic misunderstandings.

The Historical Context of Nuclear Treaties

The journey to this critical juncture has been marked by several landmark agreements:

• 1972: The first arms control agreement between nuclear superpowers established foundational principles for strategic stability
• 1991: The START treaty signed by George Bush senior and Mikhail Gorbachev marked the first time both sides committed to reducing their arsenals and established an inspection framework
• 2010: The New START treaty signed by Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev capped deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 per side and limited delivery vehicles to 700

These agreements created a framework that, while maintaining substantial destructive capability, provided crucial limitations and verification mechanisms that have now disappeared with the treaty's expiration.

How Relations Broke Down

The path to this unprecedented situation began with the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which caused a complete breakdown in Russia-US relations to the point where talks to negotiate a new treaty were never even scheduled. The terms of the current treaty allowed for only one formal extension, which has now expired.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed an informal rollover for twelve months, but US President Donald Trump has so far not agreed to this arrangement. This impasse has created significant uncertainty about the future of nuclear arms control between the two nations.

Diverging Perspectives on the Future

Opinions are sharply divided on the implications of this development. Some experts believe the United States is making a serious mistake by not agreeing to an extension, fearing America will be the nation that loses out in any potential arms race. Others view the situation differently, arguing that it leaves America free to compete with the nuclear build-up of other countries, particularly China.

President Trump has expressed interest in a new trilateral treaty that would include Beijing, but experienced negotiators warn this represents wishful thinking. Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet and Russian arms control negotiator, noted that "the official Russian position and the official Chinese position is that negotiations can be bilateral between the United States and Russia, or they can be five-party, including the United Kingdom and France."

Entering Uncharted Territory

Barring any last-minute diplomatic breakthrough, the world now enters uncharted territory in nuclear arms control. While strategic stability won't change overnight, the absence of any agreement demonstrates how far US-Russia relations have deteriorated since the Cold War era.

The expiration of the New START treaty removes the final legal constraints on the world's two largest nuclear arsenals, potentially making the global security environment significantly more dangerous and unpredictable in the years ahead.