Contenders Emerge for Iran's Next Supreme Leader Amidst Regional Turmoil
When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an initial missile strike launched by the United States and Israel in their war on Iran, he was 86 years old and in declining health. Consequently, it is highly probable that top officials in the nation had already formulated contingency plans for his demise, even if they likely did not anticipate the exact circumstances of his death. However, as chaos continues to erupt across the region, it remains uncertain whether those plans remain operational or if, similar to Khamenei's palace in Tehran, they have been utterly destroyed.
Even if the various ruling factions had previously reached a consensus on a single candidate, the catastrophic situation Iran currently faces might compel a reassessment, according to Dr. Christian Emery, an associate professor in international politics at University College London. He stated, 'Several of the key power brokers who were steering the process towards one preferred candidate, and very possibly even Khamenei's chosen successor, may now well be dead.' Nonetheless, a significant power vacuum now exists at the apex of Iranian politics, which the regime is eager to fill. The individual selected could ultimately determine whether this war concludes swiftly or escalates into unimaginable bloodshed.
How Is Iran's New Supreme Leader Chosen?
In the 47 years since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Iran has had only two Supreme Leaders. The first was Ruhollah Khomeini, who governed for nine and a half years until 1989, followed by Ali Khamenei as the second. It is important to note that the title of Ayatollah does not automatically accompany the role; it signifies a high-ranking Shiite leader. Khomeini already held this title upon becoming Supreme Leader, whereas Khamenei was granted it later to bolster his legitimacy.
The Iranian Constitution outlines the procedure for selecting a new Supreme Leader. This responsibility falls to the Assembly of Experts, a body comprising 88 clerics elected by the Iranian public every eight years. Within this assembly, a smaller committee identifies a list of acceptable candidates to streamline the selection process for the remaining members. Professor Emery remarked, 'It's almost certain that this was done long before the current war.' With Khamenei deceased, the constitution mandates that the Assembly must elect a successor by majority vote 'as soon as possible', a task typically simplified by prior groundwork.
Professor Emery elaborated, 'Khamenei's own elevation was so carefully choreographed that it took the Assembly of Experts only 24 hours to elect him.' However, he added that it is 'very unclear how the Assembly of Experts can formally convene' when such a gathering would present Israel and the US with a prime opportunity to eliminate more of Iran's leadership.
Who Are the Top Contenders to Become Supreme Leader of Iran?
Based on Professor Emery's analysis, the most likely candidates for Iran's new Supreme Leader are as follows, along with their potential impacts:
- Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i: Currently serving as one of three leaders on Iran's interim governing council, he is an extreme hardliner notorious for overseeing mass executions and brutal crackdowns during anti-government protests. His appointment could potentially incite further public outrage.
- Hassan Khomeini: The grandson of the Islamic Republic's founder and first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, he may represent a stabilizing option for the regime. With the Khomeini family name and connections to both reformist and conservative factions, he is also reportedly respected by the powerful Revolutionary Guards. While viewed as somewhat moderate, this remains a relative term given all candidates' loyalty to a brutal and corrupt system.
- Mojtaba Khamenei: The second-eldest son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he wields significant influence within Iran. However, his lack of government experience and the political and clerical establishment's fear that hereditary rule would undermine the revolution's principles work against him.
- Ayatollah Alireza Arafi: A member of the Guardian Council since 2019 and the Assembly of Experts since 2022, he possesses the necessary clerical standing. His influence was evident when he was appointed to the interim governing council. He would likely be perceived as a safe choice, continuing Khamenei's agenda without challenging the Revolutionary Guard's power.
As Iran navigates this critical juncture, the selection of its next Supreme Leader will profoundly influence both domestic stability and the broader regional conflict.
