Mexico has officially cancelled a planned oil shipment to Cuba, with President Claudia Sheinbaum appearing to confirm the decision in a press conference on Tuesday. She firmly stated that this move represents a "sovereign" choice by the Mexican government and was not influenced by external pressure from the United States.
Context of Cuba's Fuel Crisis
The cancellation comes at a critical time for Cuba, which is grappling with increasingly severe blackouts due to acute fuel shortages. Since the United States blocked oil shipments from Venezuela last month, Mexico has stepped in as the island's primary supplier, making this decision particularly impactful.
Reports and Official Statements
Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that Pemex, Mexico's state-owned oil company, had reversed plans to send a much-needed delivery to Cuba this month. When questioned about the report during her daily briefing, Sheinbaum responded, "It is a sovereign decision and it is made in the moment when necessary." She emphasised that the cancellation was not a reaction to US demands.
US Involvement and Political Tensions
The move follows heightened tensions after the US captured and renditioned Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela earlier this year, shifting focus to Cuba, Venezuela's long-standing ally. In a Truth Social post on 11 January, former US President Donald Trump declared, "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!" This has led to speculation that Mexico might be privately reviewing its oil shipments to Cuba to avoid potential reprisals from the US.
Sheinbaum's Diplomatic Balancing Act
President Sheinbaum avoided clarifying whether this cancellation is a one-off event or signals a more permanent suspension of oil shipments to Cuba. Instead, she reiterated Mexico's consistent opposition to the US blockade on Cuba, stating, "Cuba has been under a blockade for too many years now. And this blockade has caused supply problems on the island. Mexico has always shown solidarity and Mexico will continue to show solidarity."
This issue poses a significant challenge for Sheinbaum, who is navigating a delicate political landscape. She aims to demonstrate to the Trump administration that Mexico is a cooperative partner on trade and security matters, particularly as the two countries begin renegotiating the trillion-dollar USMCA North American free trade agreement. Simultaneously, she must maintain support from the left wing of her Morena party without appearing to capitulate to US pressure.
Analyst Perspectives
Political analyst Alexander González Ormerod commented on Sheinbaum's approach, noting, "Whenever Sheinbaum gives mealy-mouthed answers, it's not for lack of preparation. It's because it's probably an answer made by committee on the best way to avoid upsetting all the different constituencies within the Morena and the US-Mexico coalition." He added, "When the answer's easy, she's decisive. When it's not, she's evasive."
The cancellation underscores the complex interplay of international diplomacy, energy politics, and domestic pressures facing Mexico's leadership. As Cuba's energy crisis deepens, the future of oil shipments remains uncertain, with Sheinbaum's government caught between asserting national sovereignty and managing fraught relations with the United States.
