Senior delegations from Ukraine and Russia have concluded a second day of high-level peace negotiations in the United Arab Emirates without achieving a significant breakthrough towards ending the ongoing conflict. The talks, which were mediated by the United States, did however yield a concrete humanitarian outcome: an agreement for a reciprocal exchange of 157 prisoners of war from each side.
Substantive Engagement Amidst Ongoing Stalemate
The meetings in Abu Dhabi marked the most substantive diplomatic contact between Kyiv and Moscow in several months, signalling a tentative, albeit uncertain, revival of efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the war that has now persisted for nearly four years. Despite this engagement, significant obstacles remain firmly in place.
Details of the Negotiations
The discussions spanned two days, with a trilateral session involving US mediators lasting approximately five and a half hours on Wednesday, followed by a three-hour bilateral meeting on Thursday. Both nations dispatched senior military and intelligence officials to the UAE capital, indicating a more serious approach compared to previous rounds where Russia had often fielded lower-level representatives.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, described the trilateral negotiations as "genuinely constructive", extending gratitude to the US and the UAE for their mediation roles. His Russian counterpart, Kirill Dmitriev, also struck a cautiously optimistic note, acknowledging "progress" and "forward movement" in the discussions concerning a potential end to the hostilities.
US Involvement and Cautious Outlook
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted the unusual nature of the talks, stating, "For the first time in a very long time, technical military teams from Ukraine and Russia are meeting in a format in which we are also participating." He tempered expectations, however, by adding that "progress is unlikely to become clear, even with information leaks, until a genuine breakthrough is achieved." Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy involved in the discussions, echoed this sentiment, cautioning that "significant work remains" in the weeks ahead.
Core Disagreements and Military Context
The fundamental roadblocks to a viable peace settlement appear unchanged. The Kremlin continues to insist on maximalist demands, including Ukraine ceding the entire eastern Donbas region, even areas currently under Ukrainian control. Ukrainian officials have firmly rejected these terms, advocating instead for a ceasefire along the existing frontline and ruling out any unilateral withdrawal of their forces from the heavily fortified defensive positions in eastern Ukraine.
A central and unresolved question is whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is genuinely willing to compromise. Putin has consistently asserted that Russia is winning the war and has indicated a readiness to prolong the conflict unless Ukraine accepts Moscow's stringent conditions, which also include caps on Ukraine's military capabilities and a ban on western troops on its territory.
Ongoing Conflict and Humanitarian Toll
On the ground, Moscow's military advances have slowed markedly this year, hampered by freezing conditions and determined Ukrainian resistance. Despite this, Russian forces have sustained a campaign of strikes targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure. These attacks have caused prolonged blackouts across large parts of the country, deepening the humanitarian crisis in what Kyiv and its allies describe as a deliberate strategy to undermine civilian morale.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that the peace talks would continue in the near future, underscoring a commitment to the diplomatic process even as the war grinds on. The prisoner exchange, while a positive humanitarian step, stands in stark contrast to the deeply entrenched political and territorial divisions that continue to define this devastating European conflict.
