On 7 May, Londoners will head to the polls to elect councillors for the capital's 32 borough councils. More than 1,800 council seats are up for election, alongside five directly-elected executive mayors in Croydon, Hackney, Tower Hamlets, Lewisham, and Newham. This election provides the biggest snapshot of political opinion in the capital before both the next general election and the next city hall election.
Unpredictable Contest
This year's contest is the most difficult to predict in recent London history. More parties are fighting than ever before, and polls have transformed the prospects of many previously marginal contenders into serious players. All eyes will likely be on the Greens, who are expected to perform well in Inner London, eating into Labour support in boroughs like Hackney, where they may well take control, as well as Lambeth, Lewisham, Haringey, and Newham. Election watchers will pay particular attention to Camden, whose MPs include Keir Starmer, to see if there is a real prospect that the PM might lose his seat to the Greens at the next election.
Electoral Fireworks
Although electoral fireworks and surprises are most likely to come from the Greens, Reform UK will also be worth following. They will be looking for their best results elsewhere in the UK, but London may provide some interesting surprises. The capital has never been seen as fertile ground for Reform's pitch, based on Brexit, migrant scepticism, and flag-waving, but the party has been gaining ground in the counties around London and is likely to take an electoral bite out of the 'donut' in outer east London. Boroughs to watch include Havering, Barking and Dagenham, Bexley, and Bromley. It will be interesting to see if they are able to make gains not just at Conservative expense but from Labour too.
Labour's Prospects
In 2022, Labour made historic gains in the capital, winning 1,156 seats and controlling 21 boroughs, including taking control of flagship Tory authorities like Westminster, Wandsworth, and Barnet for the first time. The political situation is rather different four years later. Labour is tanking in the polls and is expected to do very badly, including in the capital. A poll for the London School of Economics (LSE) this week has projected that Labour could lose control of seven of those 21 boroughs that they currently hold. A really bad night for Labour would be defined by the party sustaining big losses of seats in some of those boroughs where the party has previously enjoyed single party status, such as Newham or Greenwich. The party may well remain the largest party in the capital, but it is likely they will lose vote share in multiple directions. This will scare Labour strategists at party HQ and make the team around Sadiq Khan nervous about the Mayor's prospects in 2028.
Conservative Challenges
It will be difficult for Conservative spinners to claim the party is enjoying any kind of revival if it is still losing control of once rock-solid boroughs like Bromley or Bexley to Reform UK but only regaining control of boroughs it never should have lost in the first place. Although 2022 was a historic low for Conservative prospects in London, there is little evidence that the Official Opposition's fortunes have been dramatically transformed in the intervening four years. The Conservatives have talked up their chances of taking back Westminster and Wandsworth – and are likely to act as though doing so is a great success – but it looks likely that the party will lose seats overall, especially in outer London.
Lib Dems and Potential Coalitions
The Lib Dems may not be getting much airtime in this election, but they are still set for modest gains. In addition to holding the three boroughs in southwest London (Richmond, Kingston, and Sutton) where the party has done well historically, they could be set to gain Merton from Labour and could gain seats in other inner London areas such as Southwark. Because there are so many parties fighting it out in London in these elections, there is a significant chance that the political picture in each local authority could get quite messy. The LSE poll projected that as many as one in three boroughs could end up in 'no overall control' (compared to just two – Croydon and Havering – currently). That may mean that minority administrations try to exercise control, or local coalitions could be formed between unlikely political bedfellows. In such boroughs, the fireworks might only just be starting.
James Ford was an advisor to Mayor of London Boris Johnson.
