Over a year since Donald Trump's decisive comeback victory, a crucial lesson from the US election is yet to be fully learned in European capitals. A recent analysis by a progressive US lobby group concluded that Kamala Harris's campaign failed by focusing too heavily on the threat to democracy, neglecting the core economic anxieties of voters. As the European Union braces for a politically tumultuous period, this oversight risks being repeated, with potentially seismic consequences.
The Populist Appeal to Blue-Collar Voters
In the Franco-German heart of the EU, Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) and Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) are leading in the polls, drawing significant support from blue-collar workers. The White House's national security strategy anticipates that "patriotic" parties in Europe may soon replicate Mr Trump's success. Yet, a coherent and bold response from mainstream European leaders remains elusive.
The challenges are monumental and expensive: sustaining support for Ukraine, driving the green transition, managing demographic shifts, and building economies resilient to pressure from powers like a potential Trump administration and China. The Brussels-based Breugel thinktank warns that the new era of geopolitical insecurity could demand an extra €250 billion in annual EU defence spending. Meanwhile, the Draghi report on European competitiveness calls for massive investment in public goods, partially funded by shared EU debt.
A Failure of Fiscal Courage
Despite these needs, a fundamental lack of boldness persists in revenue-raising across Europe. So-called "frugal" member states resist collective borrowing, and the EU's proposed seven-year budget is widely seen as unambitious. In France, a wealth tax on the super-rich is overwhelmingly popular, yet President Emmanuel Macron's centrist government, despite a pressing need to reduce the budget deficit, refuses to consider it.
This fiscal timidity has a clear consequence: the financial burden of adjustment falls disproportionately on the less well-off through austerity and rising inequality. Bitter disputes over pension reforms in France and Germany highlight a growing battle for the future of Europe's social model. Populist parties have adeptly exploited this tension, promoting a politics of welfare chauvinism. The RN, for instance, has opposed raising the retirement age and stated it would direct any benefit cuts at non-French nationals.
The High Cost of Inaction
The transatlantic parallel is stark. In the US, Donald Trump's pledges to protect blue-collar interests proved disingenuous, followed by cuts to Medicaid and tax breaks for the wealthy. However, in the absence of a compelling economic alternative from the Harris campaign, the strategy succeeded. Europe now stands at a similar crossroads.
Without a fundamental shift in economic policy—one that visibly protects citizens from the winds of change and funds necessary transitions through progressive taxation—the continent's social contracts are in peril. Mainstream governments, by failing to offer security, are inadvertently handing a potent political gift to the Trumpian forces already advancing in Europe. The lesson is clear: to combat national populism, leaders must first address the legitimate economic fears of their citizens.
