Keir Starmer's position as prime minister is under severe threat following a mutiny within the Labour Party. Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned from the government, declaring he no longer has faith in Starmer's leadership. This move is widely seen as a precursor to a leadership bid. Hours later, Labour backbencher Josh Simons resigned from his Manchester constituency, paving the way for Andy Burnham to return to parliament and potentially contend for No 10. Burnham confirmed his intention to run in the byelection but stopped short of openly seeking the top job.
Can Starmer Hold On?
Despite the pressure, Starmer insists he is not going anywhere. He has an automatic right to contest any leadership contest under party rules and appears intent on exercising it. Polling suggests Starmer would easily beat Streeting in a head-to-head contest and would only lose narrowly to Angela Rayner. The only candidate who would present a major challenge is a returning Andy Burnham. Furthermore, Ipsos figures indicate the country still prefers Starmer over Nigel Farage.
The Economic Case
Supporters argue Starmer's government has delivered more than credited. The UK economy unexpectedly grew 0.3% in March, and NHS waiting lists fell. Chancellor Rachel Reeves warned that a leadership challenge would put this progress at risk. However, the US-Israeli conflict with Iran has sent UK energy prices surging, undermining economic momentum. Other achievements include raising the minimum wage, scrapping the two-child benefit cap, improving NHS performance, and strengthening workers' rights.
Quiet Success on Immigration
Annual net migration is expected to be near zero this year, down from a million post-pandemic. Small boat crossings have fallen, and the asylum backlog has dropped. However, the government rarely highlights these successes, partly due to discomfort within the party. This silence allows Nigel Farage to avoid discussing immigration now that numbers are falling.
What Could Starmer Do?
Starmer has hinted at a major push for closer EU relations, possibly a customs union. However, this could inflame divisions within Labour, especially among 'red wall' MPs worried about Reform UK. Other leadership candidates might pitch bolder visions, but as Alexandra Topping notes, 'Big ideological moves aren't really the Keir Starmer way.' Unless he undergoes a personality transplant, dramatic changes are unlikely.
The coming days will be crucial. If Starmer can weather the storm, he must make a fresh pitch to the country. But with no consensus on a replacement and the party in chaos, his survival remains uncertain.
