Opposition Leader Sussan Ley faces a critical leadership test as the Liberal party's internal battle over net zero emissions threatens to trigger ministerial resignations regardless of the final decision.
A Fragile Leadership Tested
In just six months as Liberal leader, Sussan Ley has already conducted two shadow ministry reshuffles - first replacing Jacinta Nampijinpa Price after controversial comments about Indian migrants, then managing Andrew Hastie's move to the backbench. Now she confronts a potential third reshuffle as the net zero debate intensifies.
The crisis emerged rapidly after the Nationals abandoned their net zero commitment on 2nd November. Senior Liberal conservatives immediately turned against any climate target, not just Scott Morrison's 2050 deadline but the concept entirely. This coordinated right-faction intervention cornered Ley, for whom net zero has become a proxy battle for her leadership survival.
Moderate Backlash and Resignation Threats
Moderate Liberals have responded with fury to the conservative push against climate action. Senator Andrew Bragg explicitly threatened to quit the shadow ministry if the party abandons both the Paris Agreement and net zero commitments. His factional ally Maria Kovacic echoed this position, stating that any shadow minister unable to support party room decisions would need to resign.
One moderate Liberal MP revealed the depth of anger, telling journalists: "They didn't realise how pissed off we would be." The pro-net zero faction has deliberately worked to ensure there would be significant political consequences if climate targets are weakened or discarded.
Compromise Solution Carries Its Own Risks
Ley might find escape through a potential compromise that would see the party drop firm net zero commitments while maintaining Paris Agreement participation. This approach, similar to the Nationals' current position, could temporarily preserve both her frontbench and the Liberal-National coalition.
However, such a solution presents serious credibility problems. Australia would breach its Paris Agreement obligations by backsliding on existing climate commitments, potentially making the nation an international pariah on climate action without formally withdrawing from the accord.
The resignation risk doesn't only apply to one outcome. Some shadow ministers who want net zero abandoned might also reconsider their positions if the party retains firm climate targets. With her leadership already fragile, Ley faces losing support from both sides of the ideological divide as she navigates this defining policy challenge.
