Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has delivered a stark warning to global elites, declaring that the old world order "is not coming back" as the international system endures a profound rupture. His speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos came just a day before US President Donald Trump was scheduled to address the gathering, setting the stage for a major transatlantic confrontation over Greenland.
A Rupture, Not a Transition
In his address to political and financial leaders, Carney asserted that the world is experiencing "a rupture, not a transition" within the US-led global governance framework. He emphasised that this shift is defined by intensifying great power competition and a fading rules-based international order.
"We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition," Carney told the assembled delegates, offering a clear-eyed analysis of President Trump's impact on global affairs without directly naming the American leader.
Canada's Position in the New Reality
The Canadian leader acknowledged that his nation had historically benefited from what he described as the old "rules-based international order" and American hegemony, which provided public goods including open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security, and frameworks for dispute resolution.
However, Carney warned that a new reality has now firmly taken hold. "Call it what it is: a system of intensifying great power rivalry where the most powerful pursue their interests using economic integration as coercion," he stated bluntly.
The Middle Power Dilemma
In what appeared to be a warning against appeasement strategies, Carney cautioned that countries like Canada can no longer expect that "compliance will buy safety." He was unequivocal in his assessment: "It won't."
"The question for middle powers, like Canada, is not whether to adapt to this new reality. We must," Carney declared. "The question is whether we adapt by simply building higher walls – or whether we can do something more ambitious."
He issued a particularly memorable warning about the precarious position of middle powers in this new geopolitical landscape: "Middle powers must act together, because if we're not at the table, we're on the menu."
The Greenland Crisis Looms Large
Carney's speech came as President Trump prepared to arrive in Davos for what promises to be a dramatic showdown with European leaders over his controversial bid to acquire Greenland from Denmark. The autonomous territory has become the focal point of what may represent the most significant rift between Washington and Europe in decades.
Trump has repeatedly insisted that mineral-rich Greenland is vital for US and NATO security against Russia and China, particularly as a melting Arctic opens up new strategic opportunities. He has turned up the pressure by threatening tariffs of up to 25% on eight European countries that have backed Denmark's position.
European Resistance Mounts
European leaders have closed ranks against what they perceive as Trump's aggressive America First stance. French President Emmanuel Macron has vowed to stand up against "bullies" while criticising what he called the "useless aggressivity" of Trump's tariff threats.
"Now was not a time for new imperialism or new colonialism," Macron stated pointedly, as the European Union promised an "unflinching" response to American pressure tactics.
Greenland's Prime Minister added to the tension by warning that his territory's tiny population of 57,000 must be prepared for the possibility of military force, highlighting the seriousness of the escalating situation.
Canada's Stance and Preparedness
Carney made Canada's position unequivocally clear during his Davos address: "Canada stands firmly with Greenland and Denmark and fully supports their unique right to determine Greenland's future."
His speech followed a report in Canada's Globe and Mail newspaper revealing that the country's military has developed a model response to a potential US invasion. According to unnamed senior government officials cited by the paper, this response centres on insurgency-style tactics similar to those used by resistance fighters in Afghanistan against Soviet and later US forces.
Broader Implications for Global Governance
The Davos meeting has been completely overshadowed by Trump's Greenland ambitions, with the president vowing that his plan for the autonomous Danish territory was irreversible. Trump has scheduled multiple meetings on the issue during his time at the forum, ensuring it remains at the forefront of discussions.
Carney's analysis suggests that middle powers face a critical choice in this new era of great power rivalry. While acknowledging that great powers "can afford for now to go it alone" due to their market size, military capacity, and leverage, he emphasised that middle powers lack such advantages and must therefore pursue different strategies.
The Canadian leader's message represents a sobering assessment of global realities as traditional alliances strain under pressure and established norms of international behaviour face unprecedented challenges. His warning that nostalgia "is not a strategy" underscores the difficult adjustments facing nations accustomed to operating within a more predictable global framework.
