Hopes for a swift reunion of the Coalition appear to be fading rapidly, with Opposition Leader Sussan Ley now considering a decisive move to fast-track a permanent Liberal-only frontbench. This action would effectively cement the split between the Liberal and National parties, marking a significant shift in Australian political dynamics.
Deadlocked Talks and Unyielding Demands
On Wednesday, Ley met with Nationals leader David Littleproud for another round of peace talks ahead of question time in parliament. However, neither side showed any willingness to compromise on their core positions, leaving the negotiations at an impasse. Guardian Australia has confirmed that Ley is prepared to proceed without the Nationals if they continue to insist that three senators who defied shadow cabinet solidarity by crossing the floor on Labor's hate speech legislation should face no disciplinary action.
A Firm Deadline and Potential Promotions
Initially, Ley had set a deadline of next Monday for the Nationals to agree to reunite before she would advance with an all-Liberal shadow ministry. Yet, senior Liberals are now anticipating that she might accelerate this announcement, potentially promoting six MPs to shadow cabinet and two more to the outer shadow ministry. This mass promotion strategy is seen as a way for Ley to strengthen her internal support base, particularly as conservative rival Angus Taylor contemplates a leadership challenge that could emerge as early as next week.
Ley has dismissed talk of an imminent leadership spill as "ridiculous" media speculation, but the underlying tensions within the party are palpable. The Nationals, for their part, are demanding the reinstatement of the three senators, while Ley remains adamant that they must serve a six-month suspension on the backbench as part of a broader peace deal. This suspension, along with a reaffirmation of shadow cabinet solidarity, is non-negotiable for Ley.
Nationals' Response and Growing Division
When presented with Ley's proposal on Tuesday, the Nationals reacted with hostility, and their stance remained unchanged after a partyroom meeting on Wednesday. According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the Nationals' response did not directly address the issue of punishments for the senators. If the Nationals fail to urgently resolve this sticking point, the Liberals are ready to proceed independently.
Former Nationals leader Michael McCormack, who advocates for Coalition unity, described the party's counter-offer as "considered" and "diplomatic." He urged for sensible and wise leadership, stating, "We can't just keep on going like we are at the moment." Despite this, the two parties sat apart in parliament on Wednesday, further entrenching the division.
Broader Implications and Internal Dynamics
The split has led to unprecedented moves, such as the Liberals attempting to claim 12 committee positions currently held by the Nationals, arguing they are entitled to them as the formal opposition party. Katy Gallagher, the manager of government business in the senate, criticised this as "an unprecedented attempt from the Liberal Party to purge their former coalition partner from all senate committees."
Interviews with six Liberal MPs, including shadow ministers, reveal a widespread belief that a Coalition reunion before Ley's original 9 February deadline is highly unlikely. One MP remarked, "I think it is near certain that there will be no reformation." Multiple sources indicate that Ley is comfortable with the two parties remaining separate, partly because her moderate Liberal supporters are in no rush to reconcile after the second split in eight months.
A non-moderate MP commented, "The shattering of the Coalition lies uncomfortably at the feet of the Nationals and their leader whose judgment has been found wanting. The only thing most Liberals are able to agree on at present is that we cannot return to Coalition in the short or medium term. Things could change if the Nationals put Australia first and install a new leader. The Liberal Party can no longer subordinate itself to a National Party agenda. Our collapsing vote in the cities can be tied to us adopting their way of thinking which is stuck in the 1950s."
Future Prospects and Leadership Challenges
As attention shifts to forming an all-Liberal frontbench, potential candidates for promotion include shadow immigration minister Paul Scarr, shadow cabinet secretary Zoe McKenzie, and opposition chief whip Aaron Violi. Ley also faces decisions regarding senior Liberals currently on the backbench, such as former leadership contender Andrew Hastie, Jane Hume, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, and Sarah Henderson.
While a leadership challenge against Ley next week is not ruled out, Senate estimates present a complicating factor. Senators typically do not attend party room meetings during estimates weeks, which are required for voting in a leadership spill. This would force senators to leave estimates hearings to vote, a scenario MPs admit would be embarrassing given the hearings' role in scrutinising government spending. A challenge is considered more likely in March, when three sitting weeks are scheduled.
