Liberal MPs are set to convene in Canberra on Tuesday morning for their first face-to-face meeting since the Coalition split plunged Sussan Ley's leadership into jeopardy, with expectations that she will avoid a snap challenge from rival Angus Taylor.
High-Stakes Meeting Amid Leadership Speculation
The party room meeting, scheduled for 9am at the start of two weeks of parliamentary sittings, follows Ley's talks with Nationals leader David Littleproud on Monday night, marking an initial step towards a potential reunion between the Coalition partners. This gathering is anticipated to be highly charged, coming after nearly a fortnight of intense speculation about Ley's position following the split with the Nationals over Labor's hate speech laws.
Taylor's Challenge Looms but Delayed
Liberal MPs across various factions believe it is only a matter of time before Angus Taylor mounts a challenge for the leadership, especially after Andrew Hastie ruled himself out, leaving the shadow defence minister as the sole contender from the right faction. However, most do not expect a motion to spill the leadership to be moved during this meeting, though many acknowledge the situation remains highly unpredictable and volatile.
Ley and her allies are reportedly desperate to shift the focus away from the Coalition's internal chaos and onto the performance of the Albanese government. This effort comes at a critical time, with the Reserve Bank widely tipped to announce an interest rate hike on Tuesday, potentially adding to the political pressure.
Narrow Margins and Frontbench Constraints
Multiple sources within the party indicate that if a vote were held today, there would likely be only one or two voters separating Ley and Taylor, highlighting the precarious nature of her leadership. As a member of the shadow cabinet, Taylor is bound to support Ley publicly, meaning he would need to resign from the frontbench to move or even support a spill motion, a significant hurdle that may delay any immediate action.
Senior right-wing figures Jonno Duniam and James Paterson, who were present at secret leadership talks between Hastie and Taylor in Melbourne last week, remain in the shadow cabinet, further complicating the dynamics within the party. Their presence underscores the ongoing factional manoeuvring as Liberals navigate this period of uncertainty and internal strife.
