Angela Rayner's Political Future Brightens as Tax Inquiry Approaches Conclusion
Angela Rayner appears to be gearing up for a potential challenge to Keir Starmer's leadership of the Labour Party, but her allies have emphasized that she will not initiate a contest herself. This development comes as supporters express growing confidence that the HMRC investigation into her tax affairs will be resolved before the critical May local elections, a period of significant risk for the prime minister.
HMRC Investigation Nears Its End, Paving Way for Rayner's Return
For months, the HMRC inquiry into the former deputy prime minister's tax matters has loomed over Rayner, stemming from an underpayment of stamp duty on her seaside flat that led to her resignation last September. However, sources indicate that outstanding legal issues are being finalized by lawyers, with the process now moving toward completion. Rayner is also expected to earn approximately £100,000 from speaking engagements and her memoir, which could cover her outstanding tax bill, though it remains uncertain if penalties will apply.
With this obstacle potentially removed, Rayner can focus on her party's future and her role within it. In a notable speech at the Mainstream campaign group's spring reception, she issued a stark warning, stating that "the very survival of the Labour party is at stake." She criticized Starmer's plan to tighten rules for legal migrants gaining permanent residency, calling it "un-British," and warned that the government is "running out of time" to deliver meaningful change.
Leadership Speculation Intensifies Amid Party Tensions
Rayner's remarks have been interpreted by many as a rallying cry to Labour MPs, fueling speculation about a leadership challenge if the party suffers poor results in the May elections. One senior Labour MP noted that if losses occur in Wales, Scotland, London, and elsewhere, the response cannot simply be to ask for more time, suggesting the party will take action. Despite being a bookies' favorite and popular with the membership, Rayner's allies stress she has no intention of engineering a direct challenge to Starmer. Instead, she would evaluate political and personal factors, along with her support across the party, before deciding whether to run.
Other potential contenders, such as Wes Streeting, have also denied plans to trigger a contest, leaving uncertainty about how one might arise. Some MPs speculate that 81 MPs could call for Starmer's resignation, as per party rules, while others believe a stalking horse candidate would be necessary first. The possibility of cabinet ministers urging him to step down has also been discussed. Starmer has affirmed he would fight any contest, with Downing Street sources confident in his victory, citing his strong mandate from the last election.
Rayner's Strategic Moves and Party Dynamics
Despite public displays of loyalty, including supporting Starmer when Anas Sarwar called for his departure last month, allies suggest Rayner has grown disillusioned with Starmer and his team. A turning point was his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to Washington, which Rayner privately opposed due to Mandelson's links with Jeffrey Epstein. To bolster her position, Rayner has engaged with the City, assuring stakeholders she would adhere to Labour's election manifesto and Rachel Reeves's fiscal rules, emphasizing stability over radical change.
She has also begun accumulating funds for a potential leadership bid, receiving £72,500 in donations since December. The resolution of the HMRC inquiry would eliminate the last barrier to her candidacy, should a contest emerge. As Sarwar reiterated his call for Starmer to go, the political landscape remains volatile, with Labour MPs previously stepping back from confrontation but now facing renewed pressure. The coming months will determine whether Rayner's path to leadership becomes a reality or if party unity prevails.
