Reform UK Maintains Polling Lead Amid Methodology Dispute with YouGov
In the first poll since Nigel Farage and Reform UK publicly challenged YouGov's approach, the party has retained its lead in the latest voting intention survey. The pollster has agreed to supply more underlying data about each poll in response to the criticism, marking a significant development in political polling transparency.
Latest Polling Figures Show Reform UK Ahead
The YouGov/Sky News/Times voting intention poll, conducted on Sunday 15 March and Monday 16 March 2026 with a sample of 2,329 respondents, reveals the following headline results:
- Reform UK: 25% (+2)
- Green Party: 19% (no change)
- Conservatives: 17% (-2)
- Labour: 17% (no change)
- Liberal Democrats: 14% (no change)
This poll comes after Reform UK disputed YouGov's methodology, which the party claims underestimates its support. In recent months, YouGov has reported lower polling shares for Reform UK compared to other firms, although other pollsters also noted a decline from its peak.
YouGov's Polling Methodology Explained
YouGov uses a unique methodology for its weekly voting intention polls, designed to account for tactical voting in UK elections. Since the 2024 election campaign, the pollster has asked its online panel two questions:
- How they would vote if a general election was held tomorrow.
- How they would vote in a general election if thinking specifically about their own constituency.
The results are then processed through a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) model to generate headline voting intention figures. This approach allows YouGov to estimate voting behavior in individual constituencies, even with limited sample sizes in some areas.
Reform UK's Challenge and YouGov's Response
Reform UK argues that the first voting intention question, without the constituency prompt, better represents national trends. The party cites former YouGov employee Peter Kellner, who suggested the second question advantages the Liberal Democrats over Reform UK.
Following the challenge, YouGov has agreed to publish results from both questions. The raw voting intention numbers without the constituency prompt this week are:
- Reform UK: 19%
- Green Party: 16%
- Conservatives: 11%
- Labour: 11%
- Liberal Democrats: 7%
- SNP: 2%
- Plaid Cymru: 1%
- Other: 4%
- Would not vote: 10%
- Don't know: 15%
- Refused to say: 3%
Reform UK claims these figures are the "real" numbers and plans to highlight them weekly. Notably, the Reform UK figure remains at 19% both with and without the constituency prompt in this poll.
Accuracy and Implications of Polling Disputes
All pollsters use modelling techniques to generate headline voting intentions, and their accuracy is ultimately tested at general elections. At the last election, YouGov's final MRP poll accurately predicted Reform UK's vote share at 15%, matching the actual ballot result. The MRP model also correctly called 92% of constituencies, making it the most accurate by seats among pollsters.
Polling disputes can be frustrating for political parties, as polls influence momentum and leadership decisions between elections. However, YouGov maintains its methodology is sound and has not changed its approach despite the increased data transparency.
Nigel Farage has hailed the agreement for more data publication as a victory for transparency, though the core methodology remains unchanged. The ongoing debate highlights the complexities of political polling in a volatile electoral landscape.
