SA Liberals Embrace One Nation Preferences in Election Gambit
In a stark departure from historical principles, the South Australian Liberal Party has opted to direct preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor in the upcoming state election. This strategic maneuver, aimed at bolstering conservative chances against the heavily favored Labor government under Premier Peter Malinauskas, marks a significant shift from the party's past stance under former Prime Minister John Howard.
A Shift from Howard's Legacy
Twenty-five years ago, John Howard famously demanded that One Nation be placed last on Liberal how-to-vote cards, taking a principled stand against the right-wing party. Today, that legacy appears distant as the SA Liberals, led by Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn, prioritize political expediency. Hurn emphasized that this decision is not an endorsement of One Nation but rather a vote of no confidence in the current government, stating, "You've got to put people somewhere on the ballot."
Strategic Calculations and Risks
The Liberals made this move even after One Nation refused a reciprocal preference deal, opting instead for open tickets. This echoes the federal Liberal Party's strategy under Peter Dutton in the 2025 election, where a preference swap with Pauline Hanson failed to win seats and instead damaged the Liberal brand by associating it with Hanson's controversial views. Election analyst Antony Green predicts that the SA preference decision is unlikely to alter the final results in most lower house seats, such as the safe Labor seat of Elizabeth, where Labor's primary vote remains strong.
Reputational Implications and Internal Divisions
The implications of this preference deal are largely reputational, linking the Liberals to One Nation's hardline platform on issues like immigration, climate action, and inclusion. Some within the party, such as right-wing Senator Alex Antic, advocate for a shift to the right to counter One Nation's appeal, arguing that the Liberals must become a version of it to win. However, this strategy risks alienating traditional urban voters and ceding the political center ground to Labor, which remains crucial for electoral success in Australia.
As the election approaches, the SA Liberals face a critical test: will this tactical preference allocation provide a fighting chance, or will the brand damage prove too costly in the long run? With Labor positioned to capitalize on the center, the outcome may hinge on how voters perceive this alliance with One Nation.
