While Sir Keir Starmer may have savoured Arsenal's victory at the Emirates Stadium this past weekend, the Prime Minister faces a formidable array of political obstacles in the immediate future. The resignation of his top aide, Morgan McSweeney, might provide a temporary respite, but the coming days and weeks present a gauntlet of events that could potentially terminate his tenure in Downing Street.
Imminent Release of Sensitive Mandelson Documents
An impending release of documents concerning Peter Mandelson's appointment as US ambassador is anticipated to contain deeply embarrassing personal communications between ministers, advisers, and the disgraced peer. This situation has escalated beyond the control of Number Ten.
In a largely unsuccessful attempt to mitigate public outrage regarding Mandelson's association with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, Starmer consented to disclose these papers last Wednesday. However, his initial proposal for Number Ten to oversee the process nearly provoked a backbench rebellion. Consequently, in a demonstration of Starmer's diminished authority, the cross-party Intelligence and Security Committee will determine what material enters the public domain.
The committee's deliberation timeline remains uncertain, but initial documents could surface within days. Starmer maintains that the release will justify his stance that Mandelson consistently deceived Number Ten about his Epstein connections. Nevertheless, the pivotal inquiry persists: why did Starmer accept Mandelson's falsehoods when substantial evidence of his close ties to Epstein was already publicly available, even following the financier's conviction for sex trafficking?
Critical Byelection in Gorton and Denton
The forthcoming byelection in the Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton, scheduled for 26 February, represents a significant electoral test. Although Labour secured this seat comfortably during the 2024 general election with over fifty percent of the vote and a majority exceeding thirteen thousand, the party now confronts the genuine possibility of finishing third behind the Greens and Reform UK.
A substantial Labour defeat would intensify pressure on the Prime Minister. Last month, Starmer personally intervened to prevent Andy Burnham, the widely popular Manchester Mayor, from contesting the seat, thereby averting a potential leadership challenge. Should Labour lose a byelection that many believe Burnham could have won, Starmer will likely face severe criticism for prioritising personal survival over the Labour Party's interests.
There are indications that Starmer might lack the resolve to continue should Labour forfeit this seat. Following the party's loss in the Hartlepool byelection during 2021, reports suggested Starmer came close to resigning, merely a year after his election as Labour leader.
Contentious Send Policy White Paper
Later this month, a schools white paper is expected to outline Labour's strategy regarding the highly contentious issue of Special Educational Needs and Disabilities provision in state schools. This policy area threatens to further strain already tight school funding allocations.
Expenditure on Send is projected to reach fourteen billion pounds within two years, with warnings that this could potentially bankrupt four out of five English local authorities. If ministers impose restrictions on Send funding, they will encounter fierce opposition from parents of children with special needs, whose numbers are increasing. Conversely, accepting the necessity for additional funding would necessitate higher taxes or reduced spending in other areas, exacerbating Labour's current unpopularity.
Should Starmer's government miscalculate this delicate balance, it could experience a serious political stumble with far-reaching consequences.
Spring Statement and Economic Stability
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is scheduled to deliver the spring statement on 3 March, aiming to avoid the series of leaks and policy reversals that plagued last autumn's budget. As a crucial Starmer ally, Reeves intends to project "stability and certainty" to financial markets. Some reports even suggest she faces pressure to delegate the statement to a junior minister to diminish its perceived significance.
While no new tax or spending measures are currently planned, mounting financial pressures might compel Reeves to act. Any element of the statement that unsettles the markets could destabilise not only the economy but also Starmer's precarious hold on power.
Local and Devolved Elections in May
The elections on 7 May for local councils, the Scottish Parliament, and the Welsh Senedd have long been viewed as the most ominous threat to Starmer's leadership. These contests will provide millions of voters with an opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with his premiership.
At a time when Starmer records the lowest approval ratings of any Prime Minister, the anticipated results appear particularly bleak. In Wales, Labour seems destined for opposition for the first time since devolution, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK expected to achieve substantial gains. At Holyrood, the Scottish National Party remains on course for a majority despite their internal difficulties.
Across England, Labour is predicted to lose hundreds of councillors to the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and critically, Reform UK. Should the electoral news prove disastrous, Starmer no longer has a longstanding chief of staff available to shoulder the blame, following McSweeney's departure.
These converging challenges create a perfect storm for the Prime Minister, testing his political resilience and strategic acumen during a period of profound vulnerability for his administration.
