American Democracy at Critical Juncture One Year Into Trump's Second Term
Three hundred and sixty five days after Donald Trump's dramatic return to presidential power, a growing consensus among political scholars, historians, and democracy experts suggests the United States has reached a pivotal moment in its democratic history. The scale and velocity of institutional changes implemented during the first year of Trump's second term have prompted serious concerns about the nation's democratic future.
Unprecedented Consolidation of Executive Power
Since taking office for his second term, the democratically elected president has moved with remarkable speed to centralise authority through multiple channels. The administration has systematically dismantled federal agencies, purged civil service positions, removed independent watchdogs, marginalised congressional oversight, challenged judicial rulings, deployed federal forces in Democratic-leaning cities, suppressed dissent, targeted political opponents, intensified immigration enforcement, scapegoated marginalised communities, orchestrated the capture of a foreign leader, leveraged presidential position for personal gain, undermined academic freedom, and escalated attacks on media organisations.
The sheer scope of these actions has surprised even seasoned observers of authoritarian transitions worldwide. This rapid transformation has shifted academic discourse from debating whether American democracy is experiencing backsliding to questioning whether it can still legitimately claim democratic status at all.
Academic Assessments Paint Bleak Picture
In a recent Foreign Affairs article, prominent Harvard political scientists Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, alongside University of Toronto professor Lucan Way, declared that "In 2025, the United States ceased to be a full democracy in the way that Canada, Germany or even Argentina are democracies." They argue the nation has descended into competitive authoritarianism – a system where elections continue but the ruling party systematically abuses power to suppress opposition and tilt the political playing field.
Quantitative measurements support these qualitative assessments. According to Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan democracy-monitoring initiative, expert ratings of US democracy dropped significantly after Trump's return to office. Their September survey placed American democracy at just 54 on a 100-point scale, positioning the country closer to illiberal or hybrid regimes than to fellow G7 democracies like Canada or the United Kingdom.
Even more striking is the Century Foundation's democracy indexing project, which recorded a 28% collapse in democratic health over the past year – from 79/100 in 2024 to 57/100 in 2025. This dramatic decline resembles patterns typically associated with coups or major political shocks rather than gradual democratic erosion.
Innovating the Autocratic Playbook
Particularly concerning for scholars studying contemporary authoritarianism is the administration's relationship with technology billionaires, sometimes referred to as the "broligarchy." Many prominent tech figures donated to Trump's campaign and featured prominently at his inauguration ceremony. Early in his second term, Trump appointed Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk to lead the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Ruth Ben-Ghiat, historian and author of Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present, notes that while oligarchs typically exert influence from outside government, "with DOGE, the oligarch of oligarchs was allowed to come inside the government and was basically given the key to access our treasury, the payment systems and data systems of a superpower." She adds: "So we are innovating the autocratic playbook."
Under Musk's leadership, DOGE implemented sweeping, indiscriminate cuts to federal staffing, with estimates suggesting over 300,000 federal workers departed during what has been termed the Trump-era exodus. This mass departure drained government agencies of experienced scientists, researchers, and policy analysts.
Diverging from Traditional Authoritarian Models
Ben-Ghiat observes that Trump's approach differs from traditional autocratic strategies. Whereas conventional authoritarian regimes typically expand social services to secure popular loyalty while restricting political rights, the Trump administration – with support from Congressional Republicans – has moved to "kneecap" public health and social programs, including childcare benefits. Democrats plan to highlight these cuts during upcoming midterm election campaigns.
The administration defends its actions as fulfilling electoral mandates. White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson stated: "Here's the reality: President Trump was resoundingly reelected by the American people based on his America First agenda. Now, he's delivering on all his campaign promises – that's democracy in action."
Resistance and Democratic Resilience
Despite concerning trends, experts emphasise that democratic decline is not inevitable or irreversible. Brendan Nyhan, political scientist at Dartmouth College and Bright Line Watch co-director, notes via email: "History suggests that it is possible to recover from democratic erosion – but far from a guarantee." He identifies multiple avenues for contesting presidential power:
- Continued civic engagement and protest
- Participation in electoral processes
- Support for dissenting Republican voices
- Maintaining belief in democracy's viability
Signs of resistance have emerged across multiple fronts. Millions participated in No Kings rallies protesting perceived monarchical exercise of power. Democrats secured successive victories in 2025 off-year elections and appear well-positioned for potential congressional gains in 2026 midterms. Nationally, Trump remains unpopular, with a CNN poll finding 58% of Americans consider his first year a failure and majority believing his policies worsened economic conditions.
Legal challenges have also proven effective. The American Civil Liberties Union filed over 200 cases against the administration in the past year, achieving approximately 65% success rate in "defeating, delaying, or diluting federal policies." ACLU deputy legal director Ben Wizner maintains measured optimism: "I am confident that we will emerge from this latest stress test to our democracy with our fundamental rights intact."
Looking Toward 2026 Midterms
Many scholars anticipate Trump's assault on democratic norms will intensify ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Recent Bright Line surveys reveal growing expert concern about:
- Political violence following activist Charlie Kirk's assassination
- Aggressive responses to peaceful protest
- Weaponization of government agencies against political opponents
- Unprecedented gerrymandering efforts in Republican states
Additional worries include potential deployment of national guard units to polling places as intimidation tactics and expanded Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations in Democratic-run cities. In a recent Reuters interview, Trump mused that having accomplished so much in 2025, "we shouldn't even have an election" in 2026 – a comment the White House characterised as joking, though the administration has taken extraordinary steps to alter election procedures.
Ben-Ghiat cautions against fatalism, recalling a conversation with Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. When asked how she viewed America after Trump's return to power, Navalnaya responded simply: "You still have elections. And you can use them." This reminder underscores that democratic survival ultimately depends on continued belief in its viability and determined efforts to defend it through all available constitutional means.
