AFL 2026 Predicted Ladder Part Two: Geelong Faces Historical Hurdles
The Cats, despite their storied success, appear vulnerable in the 2026 AFL season predictions. Following a crushing grand final defeat last year, history suggests Geelong may struggle to rebound, potentially slipping into footy's lower middle class. This analysis delves into the challenges facing not only Geelong but also other mid-table contenders like Melbourne, Carlton, St Kilda, GWS, and the Western Bulldogs.
Melbourne: A New Era Under Steven King
Melbourne, positioned 12th, is embracing a fresh approach under new coach Steven King. After finishing eight wins off finals last season, the Dees showed flashes of promise with narrow losses to top teams. King encourages risk-taking and flair, a stark contrast to Simon Goodwin's cautious style. With speed-focused drafting and emerging talent like Kysaiah Pickett, who has impressed in pre-season, Melbourne offers a clean slate without a full rebuild. However, consistency remains key as they aim to climb the ladder.
Carlton: Optimism Amidst Anxiety
Carlton, predicted 11th, faced palpable anxiety last year, but CEO Graham Wright's outsider perspective brought stability. Retaining coach Michael Voss was a bold move, backed by data suggesting a quick bounce-back. While Voss's focus on contest and clearance persists, the Blues have reasons for hope. Jagga Smith's arrival, Sam Walsh's long-term commitment, and the departure of distractions like Charlie Curnow signal a brighter future. The challenge lies in aligning ownership expectations as the team evolves.
St Kilda: Ross Lyon's Media Mastery and Youth Focus
St Kilda, at 10th, endured a mid-season slump in 2025 but found a spark in Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera's breakout performance. This resurgence not only secured his contract but also ended Simon Goodwin's coaching tenure. Ross Lyon, known for his media savvy and gritty tactics, now leads a squad reliant on young players he has nurtured. With Wanganeen-Milera and new recruits, St Kilda aims to escape footy's lower middle class, though depth remains a concern.
Geelong: Flaws Exposed After Grand Final Mauling
Geelong, predicted 9th, excels at moving past losses, but last year's grand final pulverization by the Lions poses a significant hurdle. History indicates teams struggle to recover from such defeats. The Cats benefited from a favorable draw last season, yet their flaws persist: a vulnerable midfield, aging stars like Patrick Dangerfield, and injuries to key players like Jeremy Cameron. With Bailey Smith potentially harder to manage and a tough opening month, Chris Scott's squad faces an uphill battle to maintain their elite status.
GWS: Depth Tested by Key Absences
GWS, at 8th, was inconsistent last season, often failing to capitalize in crucial moments. The loss of Tom Green to a season-ending knee injury and Sam Taylor's absence weakens their lineup. Josh Kelly's hip issue further strains depth, placing pressure on Clayton Oliver, acquired in a trade. Despite resilience highlighted in recent documentaries, the Giants must prove they can trust their roster in tight situations to avoid another disappointing finish.
Western Bulldogs: Brilliance Marred by Inconsistency
The Western Bulldogs, predicted 7th, captivate with attacking flair but frustrate with defensive lapses. Sam Darcy's goal-scoring exploits mask deeper issues, as fans witness recurring patterns of collapse. Coach Luke Beveridge's off-season reflections on mediocrity underscore the need for improvement. If they can bolster their defense, stars like Marcus Bontempelli could lead a charge up the ladder, but trust must be earned through consistent performances.
This analysis sets the stage for part three of the 2026 AFL ladder predictions, exploring the top contenders and premiership aspirants in the upcoming season.
