Arsenal's Title Bid: Predicted Final Table and Run-In Comparison
By Jamie Kemble, Football Reporter | Published 18th Feb 2026, 12:30 GMT
The Premier League title race is now entering the final straight, with just 12 games remaining in the campaign. Arsenal are in the driving seat, holding a four-point lead over Manchester City as they prepare to face Wolves on Wednesday night. However, City are in strong form, and Aston Villa have not given up hope, aiming to replicate their earlier superb run to stay in contention.
The Current Premier League Table
As of Tuesday, February 18, the standings show Arsenal at the top with 57 points and a goal difference of 32. Manchester City follow in second place with 53 points and a goal difference of 30, while Aston Villa sit third with 50 points and a goal difference of 10.
Predicted Final Premier League Table
The Opta predicted Premier League table, based on numerous simulations, forecasts an average final outcome. Arsenal are projected to finish first with 81.94 points and an 85.82% probability of winning the title. Manchester City are expected to secure second place with 74.55 points and a 12.06% title-winning chance. Aston Villa are predicted to come third with 70.87 points and a 2.08% probability of clinching the championship.
Run-Ins Compared for the Contenders
Arsenal's remaining fixtures include matches against Wolves (away), Tottenham (away), Chelsea (home), Brighton (away), Everton (home), AFC Bournemouth (home), Man City (away), Newcastle United (home), Fulham (home), West Ham (away), Burnley (home), and Crystal Palace (away).
Manchester City face Newcastle United (home), Leeds United (away), Nottingham Forest (home), West Ham (away), Crystal Palace (home - date TBC), Chelsea (away), Arsenal (home), Burnley (away), Everton (away), Brentford (home), AFC Bournemouth (away), and Aston Villa (home).
Aston Villa's schedule includes Leeds United (home), Wolves (away), Chelsea (home), Man Utd (away), West Ham (home), Nottingham Forest (away), Sunderland (home), Fulham (away), Tottenham (home), Burnley (away), Liverpool (home), and Man City (away).
Analysis of Arsenal's Run-In
Arsenal have two winnable games in a row before facing Chelsea, which marks the start of a more challenging phase. This stretch includes six or seven tough matches, but the reward comes afterward with three very winnable games to end the season. However, West Ham could pose a threat if survival is at stake in the final stages.
Manchester City, on the other hand, face a struggling Newcastle side next, followed by three winnable games, depending on the scheduling of the Palace match. Their final run-in is a mix, concluding with tricky fixtures against Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa.
Aston Villa have a significant challenge ahead, fighting from behind with arguably the most difficult run-in. They finish the season with matches against Liverpool and Manchester City, along with games against Chelsea and Manchester United in the coming weeks. While they have winnable games against three of the bottom four, Leeds United have proven tough to beat.
