West Ham's Survival Bid: Predicted Final Table and Run-In Analysis
West Ham United are edging closer to Premier League safety, but their survival battle remains fiercely contested. The Hammers made incremental progress over the weekend, though perhaps not as much as they would have desired. West Ham drew at home against a challenging AFC Bournemouth side, while later witnessing Nottingham Forest suffer a stoppage-time defeat to Liverpool on Sunday. This resulted in a one-point gain over the East Midlands club.
Tottenham Hotspur also experienced a setback, losing their North London derby to Arsenal, while Leeds United managed a draw with Aston Villa. Consequently, West Ham now find themselves two points behind Nottingham Forest and four points adrift of Tottenham. Leeds United appear to be gradually distancing themselves from the immediate relegation threat.
The Current Relegation Picture
With the relegation battle intensifying, here is the current standings for the teams involved. Wolves have been excluded from this analysis due to the near certainty of their relegation.
- 15th - Leeds United - 31 points // -9 goal difference
- 16th - Tottenham Hotspur - 29 points // -1 goal difference
- 17th - Nottingham Forest - 27 points // -13 goal difference
- 18th - West Ham United - 25 points // -17 goal difference
- 19th - Burnley - 19 points // -23 goal difference
The Predicted Final Table
According to OPTA's statistical simulations, here is the projected final table along with each team's relegation probability.
- 15th - Leeds United - 45.28 points // Relegation probability - 2.33%
- 16th - Tottenham Hotspur - 43.39 points // Relegation probability - 4.35%
- 17th - Nottingham Forest - 39.65 points // Relegation probability - 23.08%
- 18th - West Ham United - 35.84 points // Relegation probability - 71.44%
- 19th - Burnley - 29.07 points // Relegation probability - 97.60%
Remaining Fixtures Compared
For this analysis, Burnley have been omitted given their high likelihood of relegation. Here is how the run-ins compare for the other clubs involved in the survival scrap.
Leeds United's remaining fixtures: Manchester City (H), Sunderland (H), Crystal Palace (A), Brentford (H), Manchester United (A), Wolves (H), AFC Bournemouth (A), Burnley (H), Tottenham Hotspur (A), Brighton (H), West Ham United (A).
Tottenham Hotspur's remaining fixtures: Fulham (A), Crystal Palace (H), Liverpool (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Sunderland (A), Brighton (H), Wolves (A), Aston Villa (A), Leeds United (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H).
Nottingham Forest's remaining fixtures: Brighton (A), Manchester City (A), Fulham (H), Tottenham Hotspur (A), Aston Villa (H), Burnley (H), Sunderland (A), Chelsea (A), Newcastle United (H), Manchester United (A), AFC Bournemouth (H).
West Ham United's remaining fixtures: Liverpool (A), Fulham (A), Manchester City (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H), Crystal Palace (A), Everton (H), Brentford (A), Arsenal (H), Newcastle United (A), Leeds United (H).
The upcoming matches will be crucial in determining which clubs secure their Premier League status for another season. West Ham face a particularly challenging schedule, including encounters with Liverpool, Manchester City, and Arsenal, which could define their survival prospects.
