West Ham's Survival Bid: Predicted Final Table, Relegation Percentage and Run-In Compared with Nottingham Forest
West Ham United have dramatically closed the points gap in their fight for Premier League survival following a significant victory on Wednesday night. The Hammers' crucial win at Fulham, secured by Crysencio Summerville's decisive goal, has propelled them level on points with direct relegation rivals Nottingham Forest, though they remain in the drop zone due to inferior goal difference.
The Current Relegation Battle Landscape
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest may have surrendered their advantage, but their hard-fought draw against Manchester City represents a valuable point gained in this tense survival scrap. The relegation race is intensifying dramatically as we approach the season's final stretch. Here we analyze the latest developments, including the predicted final table and remaining fixtures.
The Current Table Situation
Here is the current relegation battle picture, with Wolves excluded given their confirmed relegation status:
- 15th - Leeds United - 31 points // -11 goal difference
- 16th - Tottenham Hotspur - 29 points // -5 goal difference (with one game in hand)
- 17th - Nottingham Forest - 28 points // -15 goal difference
- 18th - West Ham United - 28 points // -19 goal difference
- 19th - Burnley - 19 points // -26 goal difference
The Predicted Final Table
According to OPTA's sophisticated statistical simulations, here is the projected final table with relegation probabilities:
- 15th - Leeds United - 42.07 points // Relegation probability - 8.78%
- 16th - Tottenham Hotspur - 42.00 points // Relegation probability - 8.22%
- 17th - Nottingham Forest - 39.00 points // Relegation probability - 29.93%
- 18th - West Ham United - 37.56 points // Relegation probability - 52.72%
- 19th - Burnley - 27.05 points // Relegation probability - 99.62%
Remaining Fixtures Compared
For this analysis, we exclude Burnley given their overwhelming likelihood of relegation. The run-ins for the key contenders present fascinating challenges:
Leeds United's Remaining Matches
Crystal Palace (away), Brentford (home), Manchester United (away), Wolves (home), AFC Bournemouth (away), Burnley (home), Tottenham Hotspur (away), Brighton (home), West Ham United (away).
Tottenham Hotspur's Remaining Matches
Crystal Palace (home), Liverpool (away), Nottingham Forest (home), Sunderland (away), Brighton (home), Wolves (away), Aston Villa (away), Leeds United (home), Chelsea (away), Everton (home).
Nottingham Forest's Remaining Matches
Fulham (home), Tottenham Hotspur (away), Aston Villa (home), Burnley (home), Sunderland (away), Chelsea (away), Newcastle United (home), Manchester United (away), AFC Bournemouth (home).
West Ham United's Remaining Matches
Manchester City (home), Aston Villa (away), Wolves (home), Crystal Palace (away), Everton (home), Brentford (away), Arsenal (home), Newcastle United (away), Leeds United (home).
The battle for Premier League survival has reached its most critical phase, with West Ham's resurgence creating a fascinating head-to-head contest with Nottingham Forest. Both clubs face challenging run-ins that will test their resilience and determination to avoid the drop. The statistical projections suggest West Ham face steeper odds, but their recent form demonstrates they cannot be counted out in this dramatic relegation scrap.
