Transport for London's (TfL) interim Bakerloop bus service has dramatically exceeded financial expectations in its first months of operation, new data reveals. The route, launched in September last year to bridge a gap in south-east London's transport network, is proving far more popular with passengers than initially projected.
Surpassing All Financial Expectations
Official figures show that the Bakerloop service made a staggering 367,000 journeys in its first ten weeks. This passenger demand translated into fare revenue totalling £231,000 during that period.
This performance has smashed TfL's own forecasts. A report from November 2024 estimated the route would generate approximately £540,000 annually. The early revenue indicates the Bakerloop is on track to more than double that figure, having already achieved nearly half of the yearly target in under a quarter of the time. Projected earnings for the first ten weeks were around £104,000, meaning actual revenue was more than twice that amount.
A Stop-Gap Success Story
The Bakerloop was introduced by Mayor of London Sir Sadiq Khan as a direct response to persistent delays in the long-awaited Bakerloo line extension. That major infrastructure project, which will run from Elephant and Castle to Hayes, is not expected to be operational until 2040, with construction unlikely to start before the early 2030s.
Faced with this lengthy timeline, TfL made the decision to accept a significant funding gap to launch the bus service. The annual contract with operator London Central costs £4.93 million, which is £4.4 million more than the originally anticipated annual revenue of £540,000. This investment was deemed necessary to improve transport connectivity in the area immediately.
Strong Public Support and Future Funding
The service's success follows overwhelmingly positive feedback during public consultation. 82% of respondents said the proposed route would be more convenient, while 79% believed it would result in faster journey times.
If the current ridership trend continues, the Bakerloop could generate over £1 million in its first full year. Furthermore, its future has received a boost from Southwark Council, whose development arm has allocated more than £5 million for the Bakerloop, sourced from developments in the Old Kent Road area.
The BL1 service operates every day from 5am to 12.30am, connecting Waterloo and Lewisham via key locations including Elephant and Castle, Burgess Park, Old Kent Road, and New Cross. Frequency is set at five buses per hour from Monday to Saturday and four buses an hour on Sundays.
This interim solution highlights the pressing demand for improved transport in south-east London, even as larger projects like the Bakerloo line extension and the proposed 'West London Orbital' Overground line face continued delays.
