Australia’s national energy transition represents a rare opportunity to enrich and reward its workers, according to Thom Woodroofe, author of a new book on climate and energy policy. He argues that a good national prosperity strategy will not merely replace one industry with another but will restore confidence across middle Australia.
Learning from Norway’s Success
Norway, where Woodroofe’s daughters were born, was not exceptionally prosperous before 1969, when oil was discovered in the North Sea. Today, each Norwegian child is born with a national inheritance worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, thanks to a sovereign wealth fund that controls 1.5% of all shares in listed companies worldwide. Norway turned luck into an investment strategy, while Australia, as Donald Horne might say, relied on being the “lucky country.” Economist Richard Auty describes this as the “resource curse,” where the resource industry crowds out others, making the economy overly reliant on it.
The Urgency of Adaptation
Woodroofe emphasizes that it is never too late to ensure a nation profits appropriately from its industries. With most of the world, including major Asian trading partners, committed to a decarbonized economy, Australia would be foolish not to take them at their word. The worst approach is to go slowly. China and other markets will not wait—Australia may have only a critical decade to capture opportunities in green iron and green steel.
Industrial transitions do not wait for governments. Supply chains, standards, financing models, and customer bases will be decided elsewhere if Australia hesitates. The country must capture market share and shape the rules of the game.
The Future Made in Australia Agenda
The Albanese government’s Future Made in Australia agenda recognizes the role of public finance and strategic prioritization. However, the next wave of green industrial policymaking must focus on people and place—specifically middle Australia. It should embed labour standards, prioritize legacy industrial and mining regions, and make training and education automatic, similar to the US Inflation Reduction Act.
A litmus test for success is whether people in these regions feel their towns are growing or shrinking, whether their children will stay, whether local businesses thrive, and whether the future feels predictable.
Trade Policy and Household Impact
Trade policy may seem remote until it affects households. What Australia exports determines the kinds of jobs created, wages sustained, and the tax base funding schools, hospitals, and infrastructure. An economy based on raw commodity exports generates revenue but few jobs per dollar and subjects the country to boom-bust cycles. Value-added exports create more employment, steadier income, and a broader economic base.
A good national prosperity strategy will restore confidence across middle Australia. Workers should not fear the transition, but this requires visible, funded pathways. Reskilling must be paid, prior skills recognized, and wage guarantees provided. A fitter or electrician moving from coal to green steel or hydrogen should not face lower pay or diminished status.
Those who favour the status quo are not on the side of workers, but that can change.
The Risk of Inaction
The greatest risk Australia faces is the current reality: fossil fuel markets eroding and a potential jolt into a new reality. If coal demand declines faster than expected, iron ore prices fall as steel decarbonizes, and Australia remains locked into exporting raw materials in carbon-constrained markets, the economy will be in trouble. Government coffers may not dry up overnight but will deplete, regions will hollow out, and public services will be squeezed.
Doing nothing is not a choice. It means accepting lower growth, higher volatility, and fewer options, leaving Australia exposed to forces it cannot control. Middle Australia would absorb the adjustment through insecure work, shrinking job prospects, and declining regional prospects.
Think about that next time someone insists that coal’s decline is merely a flesh wound.
This is an edited extract from Power, Prosperity & Planet: Climate & Energy Policy for All by Thom Woodroofe, part of the In the National Interest series from Monash University Publishing.
