UK food prices are on track to be 50% higher in November than at the start of the cost of living crisis in 2021, according to new research. The study, conducted by the thinktank Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), reveals that climate and energy shocks have nearly quadrupled the pace of food price growth, with costs rising in five years at roughly the same rate as over the previous two decades.
Impact on Low-Income Families
Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation charity, warned that rising food prices are forcing low-income families to cut back on meals. "Food prices rising this high and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate. When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises - taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it," she said.
Drivers of Inflation
The research suggests that the cost of living crisis, which many voters blame on political elites and big business, will remain a key political issue in 2026. Experts note that the war in the Middle East is likely to drive up inflation, which had already been exacerbated by the Covid pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Bank of England has forecast food inflation to rise to 7% by the end of the year due to higher costs for fertiliser, energy, and transport.
Price Increases by Product
- Beef: up 64%
- Olive oil: more than doubled
- Pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate, and eggs: at least 50% more expensive than five years ago
These rises reflect products' "sensitivity to volatile oil and gas prices, synthetic fertiliser costs, and climate impacts such as droughts, floods and heatwaves, both in the UK and in key import regions," the ECIU found.
Household Impact
The report adds that these forces pushed household food bills up by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023. Recently, five climate-affected foods - butter, milk, beef, chocolate, and coffee - have been responsible for much of the continued pressure on food inflation. The thinktank warns that inflation could become more extreme in the near future.
Chris Jaccarini, a food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said: "Trump's war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike. Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Niño effect kicking off this year. Three of England's worst harvests on record have been in the past five years."
Wage-Adjusted Impact
Adjusting for average wages, the ECIU said food prices have risen by 11% since the start of the cost of living crisis, compounding wage-adjusted rises in other household costs that are difficult to mitigate, including energy and water bills.
