Iran's foreign minister has declared that the Strait of Hormuz is now completely open to commercial vessels, sparking hopes for a potential end to the ongoing Middle East conflict and causing a significant drop in global oil prices. However, analysts caution that a widespread resumption of shipping through this critical waterway is unlikely in the immediate future due to persistent uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.
Mixed Signals from Tehran and Washington
In a series of social media posts, former US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran had agreed never to close the strategic strait again, celebrating what he called "A GREAT AND BRILLIANT DAY FOR THE WORLD!" Despite this optimistic proclamation, the pledge from Iranian diplomat Abbas Araghchi received only qualified support from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has strengthened its authority in Tehran during the war.
Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, later issued a stern warning that if the US blockade continues, "the strait of Hormuz will not remain open." Ghalibaf emphasized that whether the strait remains accessible and the regulations governing it "will be determined by the field, not by social media," in a clear jab at Trump's online declarations.
Nuclear Program and Financial Disputes
Trump also asserted that Iran had agreed to indefinitely suspend its nuclear program and would not receive any frozen funds from the United States. In an interview with Bloomberg, he indicated that talks to end the war would "probably" occur over the weekend. Separately, the former president told Reuters that Washington would collaborate with Iran to recover its enriched uranium, which he referred to as "nuclear dust" that would be retrieved at "a nice leisurely pace" and transferred to the US.
Iranian authorities did not immediately comment on these claims, though Tehran has long maintained that its right to enrich uranium domestically is sacrosanct. When questioned about reports of a potential $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal, Trump firmly denied the speculation, stating, "It's totally false. No money is changing hands."
Regional Ceasefire and Ongoing Conflicts
Araghchi's announcement coincided with the first full day of a new 10-day truce in Lebanon, which has partially paused fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group. This fragile ceasefire offers temporary relief in areas that have endured weeks of relentless Israeli airstrikes, resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties.
Trump claimed that Israel would cease attacks on Lebanon, asserting they are "PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A." However, minutes before this post, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared in a video message that Israel was not finished with Hezbollah, stating, "We have not yet finished the job. There are things we plan to do to address the remaining rocket threat and the drone threat."
Shortly after, reports emerged of an Israeli drone strike killing one person in southern Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz insisted that the IDF was not withdrawing from the country and that military operations could resume at any time.
Shipping Restrictions and Economic Implications
Iranian state television quoted a senior military official stating that commercial vessels would be permitted to travel through the Strait of Hormuz, but only along a designated route and with approval from the IRGC navy. Trump confirmed that the US blockade of Iranian ports and shipping would remain in place for now, adding that few vessels are likely to risk passage through the strait under such uncertain conditions, meaning any return to normalcy remains distant.
"The naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran, only, until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete," Trump posted on his Truth Social network, noting that "this process should go very quickly."
On Friday, the US Treasury Department extended a waiver allowing further purchases of sanctioned Russian oil loaded on vessels until May 16, continuing an original 30-day waiver that expired on April 11. The Trump administration has been actively working to control global energy prices, which have surged during the conflict.
International Diplomacy and Security Concerns
In Paris, representatives from approximately 40 countries convened at a conference co-chaired by France and the United Kingdom to discuss an international plan to secure the strait, which carried about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies before the conflict began. The closure of the strait by Iran shortly after the war started has driven up oil prices, fueled inflation, and threatened a severe economic crisis that could trigger global recessions.
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed Araghchi's statement and urged the "full, unconditional reopening by all the parties." UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized that any proposal to reopen the strait must be "lasting and workable." Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also welcomed Iran's announcement but cautioned that the situation remains "fragile," adding, "This was positive news that we received last night. We hope that it holds, but what we know is that the impact will be long lasting."
Trump, however, claimed to have rebuffed an offer from NATO to assist, telling them to stay away unless they wanted to load ships with oil. "They were useless when needed, a Paper Tiger!" he posted on social media, before thanking Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, and Qatar for their support.
Shipping Industry Response and Regional Mediation
Shipping industry associations are currently reviewing the situation. Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general of the UN shipping agency the International Maritime Organization, stated, "We are currently verifying the recent announcement related to the reopening of the strait of Hormuz, in terms of its compliance with freedom of navigation for all merchant vessels and secure passage."
Regional diplomats have engaged in frantic efforts in recent days to prevent a resurgence of violence between Iran, Israel, and the United States. The current ceasefire with Iran, declared by Trump earlier this month, is set to expire on Tuesday. Field Marshal Asim Munir, the army chief of Pakistan—which has emerged as a key mediator—is in Tehran to advance negotiations for a more durable peace.
Pakistan's foreign ministry spokesperson, Tahir Andrabi, emphasized at a news briefing on Thursday that "peace in Lebanon and cessation of armed attacks in Lebanon are essential for peace talks."
Lebanon's Fragile Ceasefire and Humanitarian Impact
In Lebanon, widespread celebrations erupted over the fragile ceasefire. In Beirut, cars with mattresses stacked on their roofs passed cheering crowds who congratulated displaced people on their return home. Vehicles blasted pro-Hezbollah music and waved the group's yellow flags, claiming victory.
The mass return to southern Lebanon occurred despite the continued occupation of a swath of Lebanese territory by the Israeli army and warnings from Israeli military spokespersons not to head south of the Litani River. Hezbollah, the Lebanese army, and the speaker of Lebanon's parliament, Nabih Berri, all issued statements urging residents of south Lebanon to wait before returning home.
Few heeded this advice, with extensive queues forming in front of ruined bridges over the Litani. Israel had bombed the only remaining intact bridge—the Qasmiyeh bridge, which leads into the southern Lebanese city of Tyre—just hours before the ceasefire took effect.
Historical Context and Casualty Toll
The war in Iran spilled over into Lebanon when Hezbollah launched missile attacks on March 2 against Israel in solidarity with Tehran, triggering a ferocious Israeli response that included a ground invasion into southern Lebanon. This conflict came 15 months after the last major confrontation between the two sides.
The terms of the ceasefire return Lebanon to a status quo very similar to the period following the previous November 2024 ceasefire. Like that agreement, it allows Israel the "right to take all necessary measures in self-defence, at any time" in Lebanon, despite the supposed end to hostilities.
Mairav Zonszein, senior Israel analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that the ceasefire has left residents of northern Israel "seething." She observed, "Netanyahu is grasping for a workable narrative, as the majority of Israelis support continuing the war. This, despite the fact that the Israeli military has cast doubt on its ability to disarm Hezbollah through military force alone."
An end to Israel's war with Hezbollah was a key demand of Iranian negotiators, who previously accused Israel of violating the current ceasefire deal with strikes on Lebanon. Israel countered that the deal did not cover Lebanon.
The fighting has resulted in significant casualties: at least 3,000 people killed in Iran, more than 2,100 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel, and over a dozen in Gulf Arab states. Additionally, thirteen US service members have lost their lives in the conflict.
