In a significant shift in rhetoric, former US President Donald Trump has characterized the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran as a "short-term excursion" that is "very complete, pretty much" and ahead of schedule. Speaking as the assault entered its second week, Trump suggested the conflict would end "very soon," a departure from earlier indications it could last several weeks. However, he stopped short of declaring mission accomplished, stating, "We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough." He emphasized that operations would only cease once Tehran loses all capacity to weaponize against the US, Israel, or regional allies for an extended period.
Iran's Oil Threat and Trump's Response
Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued a stark warning, declaring that Tehran would not allow "one litre of oil" to be exported from the region if US-Israeli attacks persist. In response, Trump threatened to intensify strikes against the Islamic Republic if it disrupts oil flow through the vital Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps asserted in a state-media statement that it would "determine the end of the war," following Trump's comments about an imminent conclusion.
Oil prices experienced dramatic volatility, surging by 20% to a four-year high before retreating below $90 per barrel after Trump's remarks. Iran mocked the US over the price spike, labeling the campaign "Operation Epic Mistake."
Leadership Tensions and Regional Strikes
Trump twice declined to confirm whether Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is a target, expressing disappointment and predicting continued problems under his leadership. This came after Trump criticized Khamenei's selection as a "big mistake" and reiterated his desire to influence leadership decisions. Meanwhile, Israel has openly vowed to target Khamenei, even as large crowds in Tehran demonstrated defiant support for him.
Israel launched a second wave of strikes against Tehran, with the IDF claiming attacks on "terror targets" but reportedly hitting critical energy and fuel infrastructure affecting ordinary Iranians. Additionally, Israel pressed its offensive against Hezbollah with raids in southern Lebanon and airstrikes in Beirut. Lebanese state news reported 486 deaths, including at least 83 children, and 600,000 displaced people since March 2, raising humanitarian catastrophe fears.
Wider Regional Escalation
Fresh Iranian missile and drone attacks targeted Israel, US bases across the Middle East, and Gulf energy infrastructure. British Typhoon jets intercepted drones heading towards Jordan and Bahrain, according to the UK's Ministry of Defence. Turkey reported that NATO defences shot down a ballistic missile in its airspace, the second such interception from Iran in a week.
In a humanitarian development, five female Iranian footballers were granted visas by Australia following an appeal from Trump to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
