Former United States President Donald Trump has issued a stark threat of imminent intervention against Iran's leadership, following a violent crackdown on domestic protests.
Trump's Social Media Ultimatum
In a post on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday 13 January 2026, Trump directly addressed the Iranian authorities, stating they "will pay a big price" for the killing of protestors. He claimed to have cancelled planned meetings with Iranian officials, concluding his statement with a bold, capitalised promise: "HELP IS ON ITS WAY."
The unrest stems from mass protests against the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A reported nationwide blackout lasting several days compounded the crisis. An Iranian security official was cited suggesting the death toll could be as high as 2,000 people, a figure alleged to include government personnel as well as protestors.
International Response and Economic Fallout
Concurrently, Trump announced a new 25 per cent tariff on goods from nations maintaining commercial ties with Iran, a move expected to impact major economies like China, India, and Turkey.
The UK government, alongside France and Germany, issued a joint statement condemning the violence and restrictions on protest. However, a spokesman for the Prime Minister indicated no intention to follow Trump's military lead. The spokesman also stated that calls to proscribe Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were not "appropriate for a foreign state organisation."
Oil Markets on Edge
The geopolitical tensions immediately rattled global markets. The Brent crude oil price rose by 3 per cent, driven by Trump's threats and separate reports of attacks on tankers in the Black Sea.
Analysts at Capital Economics warned that disruption in Iran posed a "bigger threat to global supplies than Venezuela." They outlined a worst-case scenario where US military action could provoke Iran to block the strategic Strait of Hormuz or trigger attacks by proxies like the Houthis on neighbouring oil producers.
"For context, a complete loss of Iranian exports could feasibly halve the scale of the oil market surplus we forecast in 2026," their report concluded, highlighting the significant potential for a major oil price spike.
