The United States has escalated its long-running pressure campaign against Venezuela into open military conflict, launching large-scale strikes inside the South American nation, including its capital, Caracas. The operation, which began in the early hours of the morning, has targeted multiple sites, prompting President Nicolás Maduro to declare a national emergency.
From Naval Pressure to Open Conflict
This dramatic move follows a four-month military pressure campaign by US forces. In recent months, the US has carried out several fatal strikes targeting vessels in Venezuelan waters, claiming they were involved in drug trafficking linked to local gangs. A particularly contentious strike in September against a Venezuelan gang in the Caribbean resulted in 11 fatalities in international waters, raising significant legal questions.
International criticism has been swift. Sources indicate that UK officials believe the September strike and subsequent actions violated international law, with a reported death toll of 76 so far. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk has labelled the attacks as 'extrajudicial killings'.
The Stated Motives and Contested Facts
The Trump administration has justified its actions by claiming that a significant portion of drugs entering the US are trafficked by Venezuelan gangs via 'narco boats' in the Caribbean. However, this assertion is challenged by official US data. A 2020 report from the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) found that only 8% of the country's cocaine arrived by boat through the Caribbean corridor.
The primary flow of cocaine, which is predominantly of Colombian origin, is instead controlled by Mexican cartels who smuggle it across the US southwest border. The DEA report clarified that Mexican Transnational Criminal Organisations (TCOs) move multi-ton shipments through Central America and Mexico.
Military Imbalance and Potential Outcomes
The immediate US strategy appears focused on concentrated airstrikes, supported by a significant build-up of air and naval forces near Venezuela. Analysts suggest that while current US troop levels are insufficient for a full-scale ground invasion, President Maduro's military would likely struggle in a direct confrontation due to its reliance on ageing, predominantly Russian-made equipment.
Beyond sheer firepower, the US holds a strategic advantage with five military and naval bases in the Caribbean, ensuring easy access to the region. The ultimate US objective, according to widespread speculation, is regime change. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has accused the 'Cartel of the Suns' – which Maduro denies involvement with – of fostering terrorist violence, providing a pretext for action.
President Maduro, an authoritarian socialist who has held power for 13 years amid a devastating economic crisis, has accused the US of 'fabricating a new eternal war'. His regime retains alliances with nations including Russia, China, Iran, and Cuba. Reports suggest Maduro has requested military equipment from these allies as the US threat intensified, but no concrete aid has yet materialised.
Should the conflict deepen, experts warn that Venezuela could resort to guerrilla warfare and sabotage by paramilitary forces, potentially making the country 'ungovernable' for any foreign power. The situation remains fluid, with global implications given Venezuela's vast oil reserves and its network of international partnerships.
