The dramatic capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by United States forces, who spirited him from Caracas to face trial in New York, has created a profound diplomatic dilemma for Europe. While welcoming the end of an authoritarian regime, European capitals are grappling with how to respond to an operation many legal experts label a violation of international law.
A Calculated Silence from European Capitals
Official reactions from London, Paris, and Brussels have been notably restrained. Statements have emphasised hopes for a "peaceful and democratic transition" in Venezuela and reiterated the importance of international law, but have carefully avoided stating whether the US action breached it.
France voiced the strongest concern, suggesting the raid violated the principle of non-use of force. In contrast, Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni described the intervention as legitimate. The UK government, however, has been among the most cautious. Downing Street's position has been to speak of international law in the abstract, applying no direct judgment on the US operation.
This public evasiveness is deliberate, according to diplomatic analysis. The core calculation is driven by a single, overriding priority: maintaining US support for Ukraine. European governments are determined not to antagonise Donald Trump at a moment when his backing is still seen as crucial for future security guarantees for Kyiv.
The Realpolitik Behind the Restraint
For the UK in particular, the imperative is clear. The government is "absolutely determined" to ensure America plays an active role in European security, especially concerning a potential peace settlement for Ukraine. Officials believe public criticism of the Venezuela operation would achieve little practical gain but could risk undermining private influence with the Trump administration.
There is also uncertainty about Washington's next steps. The US removed Maduro but left the Venezuelan state and security apparatus intact, a move interpreted as a deliberate attempt to avoid triggering a civil war—a lesson seemingly drawn from past interventions in Iraq and Libya. This has created a "partial regime change" scenario, decapitating the leadership while leaving the body of the state functioning.
Criticism and the Risk of Weakness
This strategic silence is not without its critics. Some warn that failing to condemn a breach of international law sets a dangerous precedent, potentially emboldening China and Russia to pursue similar actions in their own spheres of influence. The episode has been described by some UK politicians as a symptom of a rules-based international order that is "disintegrating before our eyes."
Yet, the UK foreign policy establishment remains deeply reluctant to jeopardise its fundamental security, intelligence, and defence relationship with Washington. This relationship is still viewed as the bedrock of Britain's national security. The dilemma posed by Trump is acute, forcing allies to question whether to assert themselves for respect or to flatter in hopes of gaining private influence.
The Looming Red Line: A Threat to Greenland?
The bigger question for Europe is where its red line lies. Analysts suggest a potential US move against Greenland—a sovereign territory of NATO member Denmark—would represent a fundamentally different challenge. Unlike Venezuela, Greenland has held democratic elections and chosen its relationship with Denmark. Such an action would threaten the NATO alliance itself and likely force a far more unified and robust European response.
Broadly, the Venezuela incident points to a world increasingly carved into spheres of influence, where great powers dictate outcomes. It forces Europe to confront an uncomfortable truth: if it wishes to remain a relevant superpower, it cannot rely solely on soft power or trade. Europe must also become a defence superpower.
The muted European response to the raid on Caracas is more than mere diplomatic caution; it is a stark reflection of contemporary geopolitical anxieties and the precarious balance of power in an unsettled world.
